THERESA May has been given a stark warning from moderate Conservatives that she faces a mass revolt next week if she sets the country on course for a no-deal Brexit.
As the Prime Minister faces what one MP described as the “week from hell,” the message from the 100-strong Brexit Delivery Group[BDG] of Tories underlines how she is facing a major dilemma; that whichever path she takes on Brexit, she will alienate a large section of her own party, which could see more defect to the newly-formed Independent Group.
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After the 60-strong Brexiteer faction, the European Research Group led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, flexed its muscles over seeking legally-binding changes to the backstop, the BDG has written to Julian Smith, the Chief Whip, to set out the widespread discontent at the prospect of a no-deal departure.
Andrew Percy, one of the group's leaders, said dozens of his colleagues would be prepared to vote for measures to delay the March 29 exit date if the "intransigence" of hard-line Brexiteers meant Mrs May's deal were again rejected by MPs.
Fresh Brexit talks have been scheduled for early next week as Mrs May heads towards another Commons showdown on her EU withdrawal stance set for Wednesday.
In comments directed at the ERG, Mr Percy warned they risked the prospect of Brexit not happening at all unless they compromised and backed a deal.
"Some of my colleagues have got to recognise that the game they have thus far been playing with regards to this whole process is not going to end well for them and could potentially end with the delaying of, perhaps even no Brexit; which some of us have spent a lot of our parliamentary and political careers campaigning for" said the MP for Brigg and Goole, which spans Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.
Any move by BDG members would be contingent on it becoming clear any revised deal brought back to the Commons would not be passed.
Labour’s Yvette Cooper - backed by, among others, Oliver Letwin, the former Conservative minister - has tabled an amendment to Wednesday’s vote, which stipulates that if the PM failed to bring a deal back to Parliament by mid-March, then a new bill would be introduced to give MPs a vote on either a no-deal exit or delaying withdrawal to facilitate more talks.
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On Monday, four Cabinet ministers met Mrs May in Downing St to urge her to extend the Article 50 process in the event that by Wednesday she fails to return with a deal.
Amber Rudd, David Mundell, Greg Clark and David Gauke are believed to have strongly hinted they would resign if this did not happen. The Scottish Secretary has made clear that he believes a no-deal outcome would be “catastrophic” both economically and constitutionally.
It has been suggested that as many as 25 ministers could resign if a no-deal scenario is not ruled out. However, the PM has been adamant that putting back exit day would not remove the problem of a no-deal; it would simply ease the pressure on Brussels and put off the day when MPs would have to agree or not agree to a proposed deal.
Last week, one Cabinet minister suggested, rather than see her Cabinet implode, Mrs May would come up with a “form of words” to make clear she would not take Britain out of the EU without a deal. But this view may have been given more in hope than certainty.
In their leaked letter, Mr Percy and his BDG co-leader Simon Hart said: "Numerous members of our group have alerted us to their intention [should rejection of the deal look likely] to get behind amendments that are planned in the name of Oliver Letwin and others and which will have the twin effect of taking no deal off the table and delaying Brexit."
They urged the Government to consider a free vote so that the MPs could express their views without the damage of a rebellion. But this would be a clear acceptance by Mrs May that the Government has lost control.
Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, dismissed suggestions Brexit should be delayed and insisted warnings about the impact of a no-deal departure had been exaggerated.
"We must leave and I believe we must leave on March 29," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
Ahead of next week’s Commons vote, Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, and his Cabinet colleague Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, announced they would hold more talks on the Irish backstop with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator.
This weekend, Mrs May will travel to an EU-Arab summit in Egypt, an event that could give her the chance of face-to-face talks with key national leaders, including Germany’s Angela Merkel; although Government sources were keen to dampen talk of a "deal in the desert".
After talks in Brussels on Thursday, Mr Barclay said both sides had agreed discussions should continue "urgently at a technical level".
The PM believes securing legally binding guarantees on the backstop is key to getting her Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons.
The backstop arrangements would mean the whole of the UK remains in a customs union with the EU and Northern Ireland following some single market rules until a wider trade deal is agreed, preventing the need for checkpoints on the Irish border.
But Whitehall believes the chances of Mrs May returning to Westminster with a deal by Wednesday, so that the Commons vote would be a so-called “meaningful vote” on a proposed deal are nigh on zero. This means that if the PM is able to somehow survive through this week, then the Brexit process will run through to March and down to the wire.
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