WITH members of Scotland's largest teaching union voting in significant numbers to reject the latest pay offer, strikes in schools are now a very real possibility.

In the run up to the vote there had been a sense that many teachers recognised the offer was a good one and were prepared to accept it.

In fact, members of the Scottish Secondary Teachers Association (SSTA) backed the deal giving hope to the Scottish Government and councils that peace was about to break out.

Read more: Teachers reject pay offer

However, the rejection by the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS) is significant on two counts.

The EIS is by far the largest of Scotland's teaching unions with some 48,000 members which means any action it takes will bring significant disruption to schools regardless of what other unions do. In contrast, the SSTA has 9,000 members.

The weight of the vote is also significant. The Scottish Government would have been hoping either for a low turnout or for the final decision to have been much closer.

In fact, the turnout in the ballot was a very healthy 81 per cent, with 57 per cent voting to reject the offer.

Given this result, the EIS executive committee, which meets tomorrow to consider the next steps in the campaign, would be confident they can get a strong turnout for an industrial action ballot and that they could secure a majority in favour of action.

Read more: Scottish secondary teachers back pay deal

However, although the EIS could move to industrial action as soon as April they will continue to negotiate with councils and the Scottish Government while any ballot takes place.

Councils have ruled out any further cash from their budgets, so it is now up to the Scottish Government to decide whether the first school strikes over pay since Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister can be averted.

For the SSTA the situation is a difficult one. Its members have clearly backed the deal and so would not be expected to take part in any strike action.

However, given that all the teaching unions negotiate collectively they will continue to negotiate for an increase regarless of the result.

In truth, the deal on the table is probably not far from what was acceptable to union members.

The offer from the Scottish Government and Cosla was three per cent from April last year with a further three per cent from January this year, an additional three per cent in April and another three per cent in April next year.

In recognition of concern over problems in the recruitment and retention of teachers Cosla has also agreed to back a restructuring of wider pay scales and look at pay for promoted teachers.

Read more: Strikes loom at Scotland's exam body

However, the deal wrankled with some teachers because other local authority workers were offered an additional half a per cent in a similar multi-year offer.

If the Scottish Government had agreed to that extra half a per cent, the EIS leadership would have recommended to members that they accept the offer.

The problem for the EIS however is public sympathy for any industrial action. So far the public has been generally supportive of the need for teachers to be given a fair pay rise, particulalry given classroom shortages.

However, the rejection of an offer that most other workers will see as an exceptionally good one in the current economic climate could see a turning of the tide in terms of wider public support.