A no-deal Brexit could lead to a financial crisis as bad as 2008, Mark Carney has warned UK ministers.
In a stark presentation to Theresa May’s Cabinet, the Governor of the Bank of England said crashing out of the EU without agreement would lead to a property slump with house prices falling by as much as 35 per cent over three years.
Ministers listened in silence as he outlined how inflation and interest rates would rise while unemployment would more than double.
One source at the meeting said: “All of the predictions were grim and the numbers were chilling.”
Liberal Democrat MP Tom Brake, on behalf of the pro-EU Best for Britain campaign, said: “We are facing a Brexit no-deal house price collapse.
"The Conservatives used to be the party of the property owning democracy; now that epithet lies in tatters as they are the party of hard Brexit and economic disaster.”
The deeply gloomy forecast by Mr Carney, dubbed the “high priest of Project Fear” by Brexiteers, is certain to be rubbished by the pro-Brexit faction.
It came as the latest tranche of technical notices released by Whitehall threw up the prospect of more hard impacts from a no-deal.
These included:
*British motorists face having to get new driving licences to drive across Europe;
*travellers with passports close to the expiry date might be denied entry to the EU and
*free mobile phone data roaming on the continent "could no longer be guaranteed" if the UK crashed out of the European bloc.
Meanwhile, Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe Minister, warned planes and Eurostar trains from the UK could be turned back in the event of a no-deal Brexit; a claim played down by Downing Street.
Michael Russell, the Scottish Government’s Constitutional Affairs Secretary, emerged from yet another meeting with UK Government ministers on Brexit, saying that a no-deal was “unthinkable” given the “absolute chaos” that would ensue and warned that it was now threatening to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
"There is a real problem in the time, effort and resource it's absorbing and, of course, there is a danger that becomes self-fulfilling. Organisations and businesses are preparing for a no-deal.
"If the momentum behind that were to continue to increase, then it might just happen. It needs to be ruled out," he declared.
The Argyll and Bute MSP said the technical notices laid bare the “crippling costs and needless red tape” a no-deal scenario would bring.
He added: "A no-deal Brexit should be unthinkable, which is why it should be ruled out, if necessary by extending the Article 50 process."
David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, who also attended the Joint Ministerial Committee, said Mr Russell’s warning of a self-fulfilling prophecy about a no-deal was an “interesting insight into his own psyche”.
He explained: “It probably gives us an understanding as to why there is so much talk about independence by the SNP and the Scottish Government if they believe just the volume of activity creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is most definitely not the case.
“It’s just behaving in a responsible way as the timescale moves ever closer to the point at which we will leave the EU. We had hoped we would have reached a conclusion to the process at the October Council, it looks as if that will go on until November, which would be another month closer to March 29.
“These are just responsible actions,” declared Mr Mundell, stressing: “They are not the level of action compared to the effort we are putting in to get the deal.”
The raft of technical notices was published after the Scottish Secretary joined his senior colleagues for a three-hour no-deal Cabinet, chaired by Theresa May, which ran through the preparations for a no-deal.
But the CBI warned the notices showed firms would be “hit with a sledgehammer” if there were a no-deal and underlined the extent of disruption consumers could expect if "ideology wins over evidence".
Carolyn Fairbairn, its Director General, said: "Efforts on all sides should be geared towards securing the withdrawal agreement to protect the transition period. This will provide temporary but essential relief for businesses of all sizes and sectors.
"Then, attention can turn to the vital task of finalising our future economic relationship with the EU," she added.
Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, warned that key questions remained unanswered.
"In the unwelcome event of a no-deal, businesses need clear and comprehensive communication about how they will be affected and the Government should be taking every possible step to minimise the disruption, bureaucracy and costs facing firms in the future."
Elsewhere, Moody’s credit ratings agency in a report forecast that Britain would fall into recession, the pound would collapse and shop prices would rocket in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
"We still think the UK and the EU will eventually reach an agreement to preserve many - but not all - of their current trading arrangements, particularly around trade in goods," said Colin Ellis, Moody's chief credit officer and co-author of the report.
"However, the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without any agreement has risen materially," he added.
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