A MAJORITY of Scots would vote for independence after Brexit, according to a new poll.
The survey, commissioned for an anti-Brexit campaign, found current support for staying in the UK would switch to support for ending the Union if the UK was out of the EU.
The Deltapoll for the Best for Britain group also found a majority of voters in Northern Ireland would back unification with the south if Brexit went ahead, especially if it meant the return of a hard border with the Republic.
Best for Britain, which wants a second vote on the 2016 referendum to Leave Europe, said the findings showed leaving the EU threatened the Union on several fronts.
Scotland voted 62-38 for Remain in the EU referendum, but Brexit has so far failed to shift the polls in favour of independence.
The poll of 1022 Scots found 47 per cent of people would vote No in another independence referendum tomorrow, compared to 45% saying Yes, with 8% unsure.
If Brexit was cancelled, the numbers were 47% No, 43% Yes, and 10% unsure.
But when people were asked how they would vote if Brexit went ahead, the numbers flipped to 47% Yes and 43% No (51-49 excluding don’t knows).
However the poll did not include a baseline question asking how people voted in 2014, so it is unclear if the sample was wholly representative.
Of the 1199 people polled in Northern Ireland, only 35% would back a united Ireland if Brexit was cancelled, but support jumped to 56% if there was a hard border Brexit.
Theresa May yesterday insisted there would be no second vote on Brexit and no compromises on her soft Brexit Chequers plan unless they were in the “national interest”.
But there were also reports that her former election guru Sir Lynton Crosby was behind a plan to install former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in Downing Street.
It was reported Sir Lynton, who helped Mr Johnson become London mayor, had let staff at his firm CTF Partners liaise with hard Brexit group Change Britain as part of the plan.
Best for Britain chief executive Eloise Todd said: “When people voted in 2016, they didn’t vote to break up the Union and risk both Scotland and Northern Ireland voting for a different future outside the United Kingdom.
“This is compelling evidence as to why we need to stop and think again.
“The public deserve a say on the final deal, with the knowledge that if Brexit happens we could shatter the Union altogether."
Scottish Labour MEP Catherine Stihler, said: “This is a devastating poll which reveals there is a clear and present danger to the future of the United Kingdom.
“The Tories must stop putting the Union at risk and give voters a say on the final Brexit deal.”
Professor Sir John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the poll posed hypothetical questions on one issue, but people decided how to vote based on numerous factors.
He said: “What the poll shows is that Scotland’s status inside the Union is problematic irrespective of whether we remain in the EU or not. According to this poll it’s already on a knife-edge and the [Brexit-related] movement is very small.
“Remain voters become more pro-Indy [when prompted on Brexit] and Leave voters move in the opposite direction, but the net effect is very close to zero.
“The $64,000 question is what will happen if we leave the EU and people feel Brexit is a disaster - would public opinion shift enough in favour of independence?
“We know that Brexit has made the Yes movement more closely tied to the EU, but that’s also a problem for them, because it means they’re fishing in 62 per cent of the public, much of which is never going to be interested in independence in the first place.”
SNP MP Stephen Gethins said: “With almost 90% of polls since the referendum showing support for an independent Scotland above 2014 levels, independence is polling at historic highs.
“As the deeply damaging consequences of a ‘No deal’ Brexit become clearer, as Scotland’s economy continues to outperform the UK, and as people grow increasingly concerned about the future under Westminster rule, support for Scotland's ability to take its own decisions in an independent country will only grow further.”
Tory MP Colin Clark said: “The people of Scotland voted by a significant margin to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014. The body of polling work since then does not suggest any meaningful change in that view. It is time to focus on securing the best deal as we leave the EU - one that works for all parts of the UK.”
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