THREE-QUARTERS of Scottish businesses feel they don’t have enough information to plan for Brexit, with most blaming the UK government, according to a new survey.
The findings emerged as UK ministers continued to talk up the prospect of a cliff-edge no-deal Brexit, blaming Brussels “intransigence” in the current negotiations.
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox put the odds on a no-deal at 60-40 on Sunday.
The Daily Telegraph also reported that ministers had complained the EU effectively owed them a good deal under the Lisbon Treaty, and should stop “stalling”.
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis warned Brussels would be making a “massive miscalculation” if it thought the UK was bluffing about the possibility of no-deal.
The views of 350 firms were polled by the respected Fraser of Allander Institute last month.
Only a handful reported a positive impact from Brexit, with most saying it was making no difference or having a negative effect.
Asked about the impact on their business, 49 per cent of firms said no change, 44 per cent said a negative change, and just 6 per cent said there had been a positive shift.
A third of firms reported a negative effect on investment activity, compared to 4 per cent positive, and 41 per cent identified a negative effect on new investment ( 3 per cent positive).
A third also said there had been a negative effect on staff recruitment (3 per cent positive).
There was an “overwhelming” feeling of being in the dark about what Brexit would bring.
Asked if they adequate information available to plan for different outcomes of the Brexit talks, 75 per cent said no, 13 per cent said yes, and 13 per cent didn’t know.
The biggest factor affecting preparations was “uncertainty over the UK Government’s objectives in the negotiations”, cited by 59 per cent of the businesses surveyed.
However only 5 per cent had sought guidance from government to help with planning.
Looking ahead to life after Brexit, 51 per cent of businesses surveyed said they did not see any immediate benefits, 28 per cent thought fewer EU regulations would be an improvement, and 26 per cent thought it might bring extra funding from the UK or Scottish governments.
Less than one in five thought of new opportunities in markets outside the EU.
Institute director Professor Graeme Roy said it was hard to believe senior UK ministers were openly discussing a no-deal Brexit which would deliver a “significant negative hit” to Scotland’s economy and Scottish jbs, as well as food shortages and log-jams at ports.
He said: “Irrespective of whether you agree or disagree with the decision to leave the EU, the uncertainty caused by this lack of clarity is making it extremely difficult for businesses to develop contingencies or plan for the future.
“Two years on from the referendum outcome, simply kicking the can down the road – or sleep walking into a no-deal - is simply no longer a credible economic strategy to adopt.”
The Telegraph reported UK ministers had raised Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty with the EU.
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This states the Union must “develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation”.
A senior Whitehall source said that ought to mean the EU responding favourably to the Prime Minister’s Chequers plan for a soft Brexit instead of digging in over its own red lines.
EU negotiator Michel Barnier said the Chequers plan, with a common rule book on goods and agri-foods but looser rules on services and migration, is unacceptable cherry picking.
“The EU has to know that we are not kidding. If they don’t like our offer they need to come back and say what the alternative is, but they can’t just keep stalling,” the source said.
“The way they are behaving is making this difficult and if we end up with no deal we will make it clear whose fault it was.”
However there is little the UK can do other than try to shame the EU into a change of heart.
The Lisbon Treaty is policed by the European Court of Justice, and Mrs May has made leaving the court’s jurisdiction a red line, making an appeal to it politically impossible.
SNP MSP Stuart McMillan said: "The Tories think they can do what they want to Scotland and get away with it - but it’s clear that businesses are increasingly worried about their Brexit plans.
"The fact that so many businesses cite ‘uncertainty over the UK Government’s objectives in the negotiations’ as a factor hampering preparations should be a wake-up call for the Tories.
“As the Fraser of Allander says, kicking the can down the road, or sleep walking into a no-deal outcome, is not a credible economic strategy.
“Theresa May must stop pandering to the hard-right in her own party and put our economy first for a change by committing to full membership of the EU single market and customs union. The European single market is around eight times bigger than the UK market alone.
“We have called for this sensible compromise consistently over the last two years – it’s time the Tories finally listened.”
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