THE long-awaited SNP report on the renewed case for independence will set out an optimistic strategy for Scotland’s “economic renaissance”.
The 354-page document, due to be published by the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission on Friday, will offer an outlook based on hope and ambition compared to the “despair of Brexit,” declared Nicola Sturgeon, who commissioned the report in the wake of the 2016 EU referendum vote.
With the arguments about the economy at the heart of the 2014 campaign, the analysis will argue that the economies of small countries comparable to Scotland perform better than those of larger entities such as the UK.
Mark Carney: economically possible for independent Scotland to join currency union with UK
Today, the SNP unveiled plans for a summer offensive, involving a series of “national assemblies” to debate the Commission’s new blueprint for independence as the party seeks to re-energise its campaign on Scotland's future.
The First Minister said: “The report of the Growth Commission does not shy away from Scotland’s challenges, instead it looks at how we can address these challenges positively and in line with our core values as a nation.
“It is not a report about the timing of a referendum, rather, it focuses on the ‘why’ of independence and how we can use the powers it will deliver to build a stronger economy and a fairer society.
“In so doing, it heralds the start of a debate based on hope and ambition about the future of the country, rather than on the despair of Brexit,” she said.
The Commission report entitled “Scotland – the new case for optimism: a strategy for inter-generational economic renaissance” will be split into three sections, examining economic growth, sustainable public finances and the currency of an independent Scotland.
It is expected to back a gradual transition on currency with Scotland continuing to use the pound before switching to a new currency, which would initially be pegged to Sterling.
READ MORE: Theresa May tells Nicola Sturgeon Scots have 'no appetite' for second independence referendum
Earlier this week, Theresa May insisted Scots had “no appetite” for another independence poll while her Conservative colleague Ruth Davidson said her advice to the Prime Minister on a second referendum was “if the question's the same, the answer should be the same. No".
Yesterday, Keith Brown, the Scottish Government’s Economy Secretary, suggested Scotland might have ditched the pound in favour of a new currency within a decade or so.
Questioned about whether any potential Scottish National Investment Bank would use the pound in 10 to 15 years’ time, he told Holyrood’s Economy Committee: “Who knows what changes are going to happen over the course of that time?”
At Westminster, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, intervened on the constitutional debate by stating a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK was economically possible but would mean Edinburgh “sharing sovereignty” on financial matters with London.
In the September 2014 campaign the issue of a currency union was centre stage.
Alex Salmond, the First Minister at the time, wanted an independent Scotland to be part of a currency union with the rest of the UK and using the pound but argued it would still be able to keep control over its spending, taxes and borrowing.
Economy Secretary: Scotland may be using a new currency within a decade
However, just a week before the vote, Mr Carney delivered what many believed was a blow to the then SNP leader’s arguments, saying a currency union would involve cross-border ties on tax, spending and banking rules.
"You only have to look across the continent to look at what happens if you don't have those components in place. A currency union is incompatible with sovereignty," he declared at the time.
George Osborne, the Chancellor at the time, travelled to Edinburgh to deliver his “Sermon on the Pound” to formally rule out a currency union, which the Treasury warned was “fraught with difficulty”.
Appearing before the Commons Treasury Committee yesterday, the Governor was asked if he still believed such a currency union was “incompatible with sovereignty”.
He replied: “There are a number of requirements for an effective currency union and they include an element of fiscal union, that’s pretty widely accepted.”
This, Mr Carney explained, involved having a form of financial market union, banking union and capital market union; all of the components European Monetary Union was still trying to construct.
He later stressed a currency union did not in strict economic terms require political union.
“It’s for others to judge whether the degree of shared sovereignty such as some form of fiscal equalisation arrangement…has political ramifications,” added the Governor.
The SNP declined to comment on Mr Carney’s remarks about a currency union.
But Ross Greer, the Green MSP, said: “It was clear to many in 2014 that the obstacles put in place for such a monetary arrangement were political, created by Westminster politicians determined to undermine the case for a Yes vote.
“That’s why it was the Greens’ position, as it is now, that only a new Scottish currency will give us the fiscal autonomy needed to create a thriving and fair economy.”
Herald View: Economy lies at the heart of any case for independence
Meanwhile, Mr Carney said Brexit had helped knock real household incomes by around £900, telling the committee the EU referendum result had lowered growth by "up to two per cent" against what the Bank had expected in 2016 if the UK had voted to remain in the EU.
"That's a reasonable difference," declared the Governor. "Real household incomes are about £900 lower than we forecast in 2016. The question is why and what drove that difference. Some of it is ascribed to Brexit," he added.
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