NEARLY every child in Scotland whose parents don't have a job will descend into poverty in the next decade, economists have predicted.
Benefit cuts mean child poverty in households where no adult is in paid work will reach over 91% by 2027/28, according to a report.
Over half of single parents will fall into the most deprived category of “absolute poverty” in the same period, the report compiled for the Scottish Government says.
It states: “The headline results from the analysis are striking.
“Relative child poverty, after housing costs, in Scotland is forecast to rise from 26.5% in 2015/16 to 34.5% by 2020/21, a rise of nine percentage points.
“A rise of this magnitude in such a short space of time would be without historical precedent.”
The Scottish Government has set target to bring relative poverty below 10% by 2030, and absolute poverty down below 5%.
However, the economists said it is relatively powerless to stem the predicted rise created by the UK Government's welfare reform agenda, even with its new devolved social security system.
Scottish ministers are seeking further powers after Brexit, particularly over immigration as they insist “any move which limits migration has the potential to seriously harm Scotland’s economy” - but the report suggests a curb on inward migration would actually stem the rise in child poverty.
Child poverty is expected to rise to 38% by 2030 if there is modest population growth, but this will be pushed above 40% if there is high population growth while it will flatline around 35% if there is low population growth.
The report, by Landman Economics and Virtual Worlds Research, states: “Varying the population growth assumptions makes a somewhat bigger difference to the results but does not alter the key finding of a substantial increase in relative and absolute child poverty between 2015/16 and 2020/21.”
Scotland’s governments will have to substantially increase welfare support for low-income families, find a way to increase net incomes, or consider other means of assistance such as a Citizens Basic Income, to bring child poverty below 10%.
“Certainly, the forecasts contained in this report suggest that the child poverty targets are challenging,” the report states.
A UK Government spokeswoman said: “The proportion of people in Scotland living in absolute poverty is at a record low, including for children.
“Poverty rates are falling while the employment rate is increasing, and latest figures confirm that work remains the best route out of poverty.
“We know there is more to do to ensure that every child gets the very best chances in life. Our welfare reforms offer parents tailored support to move into work, ensuring that even more families can enjoy the opportunities and benefits that work can bring.”
Communities Secretary Angela Constance said the UK Government must “drastically change course” or “deliver the necessary powers and financial levers so we can do things differently.
“Ultimately, these figures show what could happen if action isn’t taken,” she said.
“And while this report also makes clear the Scottish Government’s powers in this area are limited, we are determined to do everything in our power to tackle child poverty.”
The Scottish Government’s Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan outlines a strategy increase family incomes and reduce living costs, she added.
The Scottish Greens recently compiled a ten point plan to cut child poverty, including training for midwives and health visitors to offer financial advice, a £5 rise in child benefit, an end to the benefit cap and the two child limit on tax credits and universal credit, and support for carers.
Caron Lindsay, the Scottish Liberal Democrat’s social security spokeswoman, said: “It is time to end the Tories' cold-hearted approach which is pushing more and more people into hardship.
“Meanwhile, the Scottish Government needs to use its new powers to establish a welfare system that is accessible and fair."
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