You won’t have the services, you won’t have the frequency, and some of the smaller airports might go under if they are seriously compromised.
Unless some form of economic stability is found for Scotland’s connections with Europe, Brexit is going to be like stepping back to the eighties.
Read more: Fresh fears over airport jobs and flights from Scotland after Ryanair base closure
I used to be an airline planner in my early days and we used to have to go cap in hand to the French, the Germans, the Danes, or whoever, and each financial authority to secure routes.
We could end up doing that again.
Scotland is on the periphery and this is significant change to Ryanair’s winter flying programme to and from Scottish Lowland airports.
It will mean a changing travel relationship between Scotland and with Europe and the rest of the world.
Read more: Fresh fears over airport jobs and flights from Scotland after Ryanair base closure
Ryanair’s action, whilst regrettable and disappointing for Glasgow international, is understandable given the uncertainty and potential disruption to the air transport market and operations posed by Brexit and the lack of clarity as to what regulatory regime will apply.
Ryanair has been amongst the most vociferous of the airlines in expressing concern about the implications of Brexit and already made plans to transfer part of its UK operation to other bases in Europe.
The changes seen for the coming winter to its Scottish operations are the start of that process.
The relative proximity of Glasgow International and Edinburgh airports and overlap of catchment areas plus existing Ryanair services to Prestwick and its more discrete market there, means that Glasgow International would be more likely to be targeted for service reduction first.
Read more: Fresh fears over airport jobs and flights from Scotland after Ryanair base closure
Looking at the broader air transport market and services, we have seen easyJet, also a significant player in the Scottish aviation market, establishing a new base in Austria and transferring aircraft from the UK to the Austrian register as a hedge against the worst effects of Brexit to its profitability, having already attributed a 25 per cent reduction in its recent profits to Brexit.
With airlines having to plan their detailed operations and file schedules for airport slots up to two years in advance, they are already planning in the dark, not knowing whether the freedoms they and their passengers have enjoyed through the EU Open Skies regime will continue to apply.
Or whether their UK operations will be governed by individual route licences and associated bilateral authority as happened before EU wide air service deregulation in the mid-eighties, with all the bureaucracy, delay and potential for service reduction and increase in fares that might ensue.
Read more: Fresh fears over airport jobs and flights from Scotland after Ryanair base closure
Against that background the changes to Ryanair Scottish services may be only just the start and Scotland and the UK will be the poorer with all the broader implications to access, trade, tourism and connectivity that might result.
Laurie Price is a former senior airline manager, aviation economist and Parliamentary aviation adviser.
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