SCOTS cities face the dire prospect of being overwhelmed by floodwater in just over three decades as scientists warn the impact of climate change will be much more severe than previously thought.
New research from the largest study of its kind ever undertaken reveals that nearly 60 UK cities will battle flooding by 2051, with Glasgow and Aberdeen among the worst-hit.
More intense heatwaves are also predicted for all 571 cities studied, as well as increasing drought conditions, with the chaos blamed on climate change and the effect of greenhouse gases on global temperature.
Experts are now calling for better design and improved flood defences in order to prevent severe damage in the years ahead.
The study, by Newcastle University – published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters – analysed changes in flooding, droughts and heatwaves for European cities using all climate models.
Looking at the impact by the year 2050 to 2100, the team produced results for three potential outcomes – low, medium and high-impact scenarios.
But even the most optimistic case showed 85 per cent of UK cities with a river would face increased flooding.
In the high-impact cases, some areas in the UK and Ireland could see the amount of water per flood as much as double.
The worst affected is Cork, which could see 115 per cent more water per flooding, while Wrexham, Carlisle, Glasgow, and Chester could all see increases of more than 75 per cent – Glasgow was the sixth worst affected at 77 per cent, with North Lanarkshire the ninth at 74 per cent. All 571 cities studied saw a worsening in heatwaves and the high-impact scenario predicted southern Europe experiencing worse droughts.
Professor Richard Dawson, lead investigator of the study, said: “Even in the most optimistic scenario, 85 per cent of the 58 UK cities in the study are predicted to face increased river flooding, while for the high scenario, half of UK cities could see at least a 50 per cent increase on peak river flows (the highest water level during a flood). The least optimistic result would mean all 58 cities experience flooding.
“The trend over the next 30 or so years is a growth in flooding risk, it is essential that planning is done now to prevent future scenarios.”
Dr Dawson said that taking action now is essential to mitigate the effect of floods, which will include flood defences and updating building materials. The study identified more low risk flooding cities such as Aberdeen, Chester, Carlisle and Newcastle – Aberdeen could see 25 per cent or more water per flooding event.
The UK could also experience increased drought and heatwaves, particularly in the south of the UK, which has a growing population and changing water habits.
In the worst scenario, Central European cities will see the greatest increase in heatwave temperature of up to 14°C higher than now.
Terry A’Hearn, chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) said: “The scale of environmental challenge facing humanity is enormous, with a real urgency to act. “Over the coming months we’ll be consulting on a new national flood risk assessment to provide a clearer and more comprehensive understanding of flood risk in Scotland”.
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