Scotland’s high street traders are being warned they face a bleak Christmas as online deals, early sales and interest rate fears steer shoppers away from town centres.
Even Black Friday – the last Friday of November, when shoppers’ salaries hit bank accounts sparking a boom in sales – is predicted to be flatter than in previous years.
The warning comes as it emerged that traders have been hit by six consecutive months of decline. Footfall on Scottish high streets dropped by -3.3 per cent last month – the worst October since 2011.
New figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium and retail analysts Springboard also show the downward trend has reached retail parks which have seen a decline of -1.3 per cent, the first drop in shopper numbers for nine months.
Shopping centre footfall is also down for the tenth month in a row.
The declining figures are set against a backdrop of vacant shops and consumer wariness over rising interest rates and inflation.
Diane Wehrle, Springboard Marketing and Insights Director, said October had delivered a “black trading cloud for Scotland” and warned of further difficult times to come.
“Not only was the -3.3% drop in footfall the worst result for October since 2011 when it declined by -9.4 per cent, but it was also higher than the result for the month of October in the previous three years,” she said.
“The signs of the gathering cloud have been evident in footfall trends for a while; with October’s result leading to the longest period of continual decline since November 2015. “With possibly another two interest rate rises on the horizon, these results suggest that Black Friday and the subsequent Christmas sales storm will be typified by consumers battening down the hatches.”
Traditionally Black Friday heralds the start of the Christmas shopping season, with consumers purchasing big ticket items and electrical goods. Although it's predicted that there will still be a jump in shopper numbers, early sales and cautious shoppers means it's unlikely to match the scale of previous years.
She added: "Consumers simply won’t be as eager to spend because they have less money in their pockets and they have already been spoilt for choice as retailers have unusually run sales in the last few months, crucially outside of the traditional discount periods."
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