Scotland’s housing market is on track to outperform London and the rest of the UK over next five years, estate agents have said.
House prices north of the border are predicted to increase by 17 per cent by 2022, higher than the 14 per cent predicted in the UK as a whole and more than double the 7 per cent expected in Greater London.
The return to UK house price growth is expected in 2019-20 according to estate agents Savills, assuming employment rates, wage increases and GDP growth stay on track.
The relatively slow rate of house price growth in London is being put down to ongoing fears over Brexit, which is hindering investment.
Faisal Choudhry, Savills Head of Residential Research in Scotland said: “After a period of sustained growth, the Greater London market appears to be reaching current limits of affordability.
"Political and economic uncertainty, linked to on-going Brexit negotiations, are likely to lead to small price falls in the UK capital over the next couple of years.
"The market is likely to stabilise by 2020 and we anticipate 7 per cent five year growth in Greater London and 14 per cent for the UK as whole by 2022, though the prime central London will outperform."
In recent years the Scottish market has tended to be more subdued than other parts of the UK, but is now being fuelled by a lack of supply and strong local economies.
However, growth is likely to be slower in some areas, such as Aberdeenshire, where the market is still adjusting to the downturn in the energy sector and other local factors.
Mr Choudhry added: “While uncertainty over what Brexit means for the UK economy, and how it will impact household finances, is acting as a drag on house prices, particularly in markets linked to London, the market in Scotland is revealing its resilience, with buyers appearing to be more used to political change.
“There is capacity for growth UK-wide, once consumers have greater clarity on Brexit, however we do not anticipate an over-heated market. Price increases will be constrained by interest rate rises and the corresponding ability to secure mortgage lending.”
Andrew Perratt Savills Head of Residential in Scotland said: “We have undoubtedly seen the return of English buyers to the Scottish market, and in particular those from London who are attracted by the comparative value for money and quality of life north of the border.
"This has contributed to an improving market. It may have been a long time coming, but it’s currently the healthiest market in Scotland for a decade.”
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