The UK population is set to pass the 70 million mark before the end of the next decade, according to official figures.
Demographers project that the number of inhabitants in the country will rise by 3.6 million, or 5.5%, over the next 10 years, increasing from an estimated 65.6 million last year to 69.2 million in mid-2026.
The Office for National Statistics said the population is projected to pass 70 million by mid-2029, reaching 72.9 million in 2041.
Growing number of older people – compare UK population in mid-2016 with projections for 2041 https://t.co/OhjBu366u7 pic.twitter.com/EPumlLNH0x
— ONS (@ONS) October 26, 2017
Over the next decade, 46% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 54% attributed to net international migration.
Andrew Nash, of the ONS Population Projections Unit, said: “Over the period between mid-2016 and mid-2026 the population of the UK is projected to grow from 65.6 million to 69.2 million, reaching 70 million by mid-2029.
“England is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations.
UK population projected to grow 3.6 million over next 10 years, with fastest growth in England https://t.co/Lr7qzlZQHi
— ONS (@ONS) October 26, 2017
“Over that period 54% of growth is projected to result directly from net international migration. The other 46% is because there will be more births than deaths.
“These projections suggest slower growth than the previous (2014-based) projections.
“This is because of lower assumptions about future levels of fertility and international migration, and an assumption of a slower rate of increase in life expectancy.”
Andrew Nash from our Population Projections Unit comments on the latest statistics out today: https://t.co/IBAA6rGVc6 pic.twitter.com/qs414ek1O8
— ONS (@ONS) October 26, 2017
Over the decade from mid-2016, the projections suggest that 7.7 million people will be born and 6.1 million will die, while 5.2 million people will immigrate on a long-term basis to the UK with 3.2 million emigrating from the country.
As well as the direct impact, international migration has an indirect effect on the population, statisticians said.
For example, women coming to the UK who subsequently have children will increase the numbers of births.
Conversely, women emigrating before they have children will decrease the number of births.
Once the indirect effect is taken into account, international migration accounts for more than three quarters (77%) of the projected UK population growth over the 25 years from 2016, according to the ONS report.
2016-based population projections: less growth than previous set – 0.6 mil less by 2026 & 2.0 million less by 2041 https://t.co/oopoF6HKht
— ONS (@ONS) October 26, 2017
It says: “Because migrants are concentrated at young adult ages, the impact of migration on the projected number of women of childbearing age is especially important over this period.”
The study also gives a fresh indication of the ageing nature of the population.
It says the proportion of people aged 85 and over is projected to double over the next quarter of a century.
The total projected increase in the number of residents in the UK over the next 25 years is lower than that over the previous 25 years, the report notes.
Between mid-1991 and mid-2016 the population grew by 8.2 million (14.3%) while between mid-2016 and mid-2041 it is projected to grow by another 7.3 million (11.1%).
Over the decade from mid-2016 projected growth varies substantially between the four nations of the UK.
England’s population is projected to grow 5.9% over this period. For Northern Ireland the figure is 4.2% while for Scotland and Wales the figures are 3.2% and 3.1% respectively.
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