IT is perhaps not the biggest surprise to hear the chief executive of a major UK bank come out in support of a rise in interest rates. The low interest rate environment, after all, has been a major barrier to revenue growth for banks in the last decade, albeit the move by the Bank of England to reduce base rates to historic lows in the aftermath of the financial crisis was ultimately crucial to the country’s economic well-being.
Lloyds’ chief executive Antonio Horta-Osorio declared yesterday that the Bank of Scotland owner was “very positively exposed” to a rise in rates. His stance comes amid mounting speculation that Bank of England policymakers will vote to increase base rates by a quarter point when the Monetary Policy Committee meets in November.
Mr Horta-Osorio played down the risk to the bank of consumers defaulting on loans against a backdrop of surging inflation and flagging wage growth. And he underscored his confidence in the resilience of the UK economy, pointing to the benefit from record employment levels as well as “private sector deleveraging and rising house prices in recent years”.
It is not a fait accompli the Bank of England will increase rates next month. Indeed, while some MPC members have recently signalled that a rise could be on the cards, deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe said this week the date of the first increase since before the financial crisis remains an “open question”.
Nonetheless, with Mr Horta-Osorio’s comments coming at such a crucial time, they are likely to be closely analysed. As analyst Laith Khalaf at Hargreaves Lansdown noted, Lloyds is “heavily plugged into the domestic economy”, meaning it could suffer should the Brexit negotiations lead to a “slump in UK growth”. And who would bet against that, given the damage already wrought by the collapse in sterling since the Brexit vote, and how difficult the exit talks are proving to be.
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