Friday's speech by the First Minister was commendable in terms of planning for the future.
It included: consultation over a National Investment Bank (NIB); establishing a Just Transition Commission to help smooth the transition to a low-carbon economy; exploring the idea of a Citizen’s Income in Scotland; and she already has her Council of Economic Advisers looking to see if introducing a higher rate of income tax is feasible.
The problem remains how to address the ‘here and now’ economic issues. For example, over the last two and a half years, the Scottish economy has only seen growth of any substance in two quarters and there was a complete lack of growth throughout 2016. While the decline in North Sea activity will explain some of this torpor the sluggishness seen across most private sector services suggests the problem goes deeper.
However, neither the Economy Secretary, who described the latest 0.1 per cent quarterly increase as “good news”, nor the First Ministers Council of Economic Advisers are exactly chomping at the bit in trying to understand or address this poor performance.
Perhaps it is time to fast forward the SNP’s Growth Commission report to reboot economic policy.
The initial report was due to be submitted to the Nicola Sturgeon by the end of 2016, so it seems unlikely that any delay in publication is coming from the Commission’s end.
While the report was set up to address the steps an independent Scotland would require to secure a strong economy it seems highly likely that there will be considerable overlap with existing powers. At the very least it would highlight areas where further powers might be needed in order to maximise growth potential.
One area where all parties in Scotland are let down at present is the lack of independent (or partisan for that matter) economic think tanks that are able to analyse Scottish data and help make or support policy recommendations. While the Scottish Parliament has thrived post devolution, the types of institutions that usually accompany and augment such powerful parliaments are notable by their absence.
Getting to grips with current weaknesses will not be easy or straightforward. As well as the fluctuating fortunes of the North Sea, there is also the uncertainty of Brexit to contend with. What is needed urgently is an admission that Scotland’s economy has been going through a period of turbulence for some time now and that this is likely to continue.
Successfully navigating such choppy waters may require greater cross party co-operation. For example, bringing together the likes of: the new head of the NIB; the Scottish Conservatives recently created Scottish Future Growth Council; the SNP’s Growth Commission and the First Ministers Council of Economic Advisers might help in thrashing out some agreed areas of urgent action.
John McLaren
Scottish Trends website
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