AT THE request of the Spanish central government, the Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, has confirmed that no unilateral declaration of independence – DUI in Spanish – has been put into effect by Catalonia’s Parliament.
But it not definitively out of the question in the foreseeable future.
Today 21 provisions laid down in Article 155 of the Constitution are expected to be implemented, at least partially, by taking control of some Catalonia’s constitutional self-rule institutions.
A key player in this tense game could be the radical left and anti-EU party Popular Unity Candidacy, which lends support to the Catalan Government (all pro-independence parties form a legislative majority of 53 per cent of the seats with a popular vote of 48 per cent).
Second, the momentum for separation has suffered a tremendous blow with the decision by businesses or corporations to leave.
Third, the EU has repeatedly insisted that Catalonia’s claim for secession is Spain’s "internal matter", and have shown no interest whatsoever in mediating in a highly heated political conflict.
It could create a dangerous precedent considering the wide variety of pressing ‘internal’ issues occurring in other member states. EU leaders fear the effect that an independent Catalonia could have in other territories of the Old continent.
Fourth, snap parliamentary elections in Catalonia could be a way out of the present deadlock with the fresh renewal of Catalan MPs and the political strengthening – or otherwise – of the secessionist vote.
More and more Spaniards now claim that the political future of Catalonia needs the active consent of all of them.
The implications of secession would undoubtedly concern them all. Therefore, it is rather difficult to foresee the consequences of Catalonia’s delayed unfolding of independence.
There are no credible grounds even to imagine that an all-party agreement in Catalonia could result in a consultation for independence with the acquiescence of the rest of Spain.
Luis Moreno is a research professor at the Spanish National Research Council
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