THE main political consequence of Sunday’s events is that the Spanish Government has lost the battle of legitimacy in Catalonia.
Their response proved both repressive and ineffective, and the Catalan government has gained significant political capital and control of the narrative. So what will happen now?
There are three main possible scenarios.
The first and most radical is that the Catalan Government could declare independence unilaterally. The Catalan referendum law foresees a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) in the event of a Yes vote, and there is a pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament which support this declaration.
READ MORE: King Felipe criticises Catalan authorities over independence vote
This would be extremely problematic. The UDI would not be recognised internationally, the Catalan Government is unlikely to be able to actually implement the decision, and the pro-independence movement could lose the political capital gained on Sunday. After all, there is not a clear pro-independence majority in Catalonia – although Sunday’s events may have had an impact on public opinion.
A UDI would probably be followed by the Spanish Government drawing on article 155 of the Spanish Constitution to take control or dissolve Catalonia’s autonomy.
The second scenario is the EU mediating to promote dialogue between the two governments and stop the escalation. This seems to be the main goal of the Catalan Government, drawing on the remedial notion that democracy and basic rights are being disrespected within a member state. This is the least likely scenario, but it could become more likely if the events described in the first scenario unfold.
The third scenario is snap elections in Catalonia and Spain. Pro-independence parties could use the momentum to gain a stronger parliamentary majority, while the PP could campaign around the issue of state unity to strengthen its parliamentary position.
READ MORE: King Felipe criticises Catalan authorities over independence vote
A snap election is unlikely in Catalonia. Pro-independence supporters would inevitably see the move as a step back. This move would also create tensions among the plurality of pro-independence parties.
A snap election in Spain is more likely but also unclear. To pass a vote of non-confidence for President Rajoy, as Podemos demands, the key actor is the Socialist Party. The Socialists are uncomfortable, critical with the PP for Sunday’s violence but broadly in agreement with their constitutionalist arguments and their opposition to a Catalan referendum.
In short, there are three main future scenarios and it is the least likely, EU mediation, the one that would most effectively de-escalate the political tension.
READ MORE: King Felipe criticises Catalan authorities over independence vote
Daniel Cetra, research fellow in nationalism and independence movements at the Centre on Constitutional Change, University of Edinburgh
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel