NEW diagnoses of HIV in Scotland have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade.
The latest statistics from Health Protection Scotland reveal that 285 new cases of HIV were identified in laboratory tests during 2016, the lowest number since 2003.
The figure represents a 21 per cent decrease compared to 2015, when 360 new cases were reported, and is significantly below annual averages. Between 2004 and 2015, the number of new cases reported annually in Scotland ranged between 340 and 440.
Reported infections among 15 to 24-year olds in Scotland are also at their lowest level since 1995.
HPS is now undertaking further research to determine whether there is an underlying cause for the decline. Professor David Goldberg, a consultant epidemiologist at HPS, said it "would be unwise to come to any firm conclusions" at this stage, suggesting the dip may simply be due to changes in migration or a drop in HIV testing.
Prof Goldberg said: "It is possible the numbers will return to 'normal' in 2017 and beyond.
"That said the reduction is an interesting one and from a risk category perspective, the decline in reports is most attributable to men who have sex with men (MSM) who probably acquired their infection within Scotland and heterosexual men and women diagnosed in Scotland but who likely acquired their infection in high prevalence areas outwith the UK (e.g. sub saharan African countries).
"From an MSM perspective, it is possible that the decline in reports among those acquiring their infection within Scotland represents a real reduction in HIV transmission among this population. Further work is being undertaken by HPS in association with NHS boards to ascertain if there is any evidence which would be consistent with this potential reason.
"From the heterosexual men and woman perspective, HPS is also looking at the possibility of a decline in reports among people who originated from high prevalence countries being due to changes in rates of migration.
"Another possible reason for these declines in reports among the two respective groups is a reduction in HIV testing uptake. Once our work is completed a report will be made available to both professionals and the general public."
Of the new cases identified in 2016, 227 were male and 169 are aged between 25 and 44 years. Greater Glasgow & Clyde reported 101 diagnoses, 70 were reported from Lothian, 30 from Grampian and 27 from Lanarkshire.
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