The first inkling that Theresa May would reject any bid from Nicola Sturgeon for a second crack at independence came in October.
The Herald reported then that the talk within Whitehall’s corridors of power was that of the Prime Minister possibly agreeing in principle to another referendum but introducing a so-called “sunrise clause” into any Section 30 Order.
This was meant to ensure that no new poll could take place until after the Brexit process was complete.
The prospect of Mrs May and her colleagues trying to negotiate the mother of all complex deals with Brussels over Britain’s departure from the EU while, at the same time, trying to stave off the Nationalist attack on the Union was anathema. Even more so if the No side lost; as this would mean the UK Government negotiating two divorces at the same time.
"She couldn't possibly ride two horses. It would be difficult dealing with one set of talks; to have to do another would be a nightmare," explained one UK Government insider at the time.
A month later, things appeared to have moved on as The Herald was told by key sources close to Mrs May that she had finally decided not to allow indyref2 before Brexit had happened. The sunrise clause option appeared to have been abandoned in favour of a big fat No.
The Herald decided to bide its time to get the refusal on the record. Hopes were raised and then lowered of a chance to speak to the PM in person but one Cabinet minister also made clear, privately, that there would be no way Mrs May would agree to a second battle for Britain while the Brexit talks were going on. Apart from anything else, if she lost indyref2 she would have to resign as PM.
The waters were muddied when another frontbencher suggested Mrs May would still consider granting a Section 30 Order but stressed a long process, including an Edinburgh Agreement Mk II, would have to be gone through.
Confusion grew when yet a third Cabinet minister, privately, insisted the PM was adamant that she would not allow Ms Sturgeon to hold a poll while the complex talks with the EU27 were going on.
The Herald now needed to get a response on the record to either stand up the story or kill it.
In early February, Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, was about to go to Scotland and offered an interview. We took it. The question had to be asked. Would the UK Government facilitate a second independence referendum in this Parliament?
"No, forget it. The respect agenda is two-way. She [the First Minister] is constantly asking us to respect the SNP Government but she has to respect the decision of Scotland to stay inside the UK in 2014 and the decision of the UK to leave the EU. Respect works two ways," declared Sir Michael.
Ever since then the UK Government has been dodging the question, relying on the mantra of “it’s not a question of whether there could be one, it’s whether there should be one,” and stressing anything else was a hypothetical.
Yesterday, after Nicola Sturgeon’s pre-emptive strike Mrs May finally confirmed Sir Michael’s public sentiment and the private ones of his colleagues: “now is not the time”.
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