NICOLA Sturgeon may have called a referendum too soon and been wiser waiting for demographic change to deliver independence instead, according to new research.
The annual Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey found record support for independence, but also growing Euroscepticism, making the SNP’s pro-EU stance unlikely to win many converts.
It said massive support for independence among young voters who will out-live elderly Unionists could lead to a natural majority for leaving the UK quite soon.
Author John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: “Nicola Sturgeon might have been wiser to have stayed her hand, for on current trends there is a real possibility that demographic change will help produce a majority for independence in the not too distant future anyway.”
The report fuelled growing speculation the SNP will try to de-couple the next referendum from Europe, despite citing last June’s Brexit vote as a mandate to hold it.
Party sources suggested a vote for independence would not reverse Brexit, but could lead to Scotland being in the single market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which comprises all the EU states plus Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Switzerland.
There could then be a further referendum on full EU membership.
After she announced the referendum on Monday, Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP’s long-standing policy was for Scotland to be a full EU member after independence, but added “obviously we are in different circumstances now than we have been in the past”.
SNP External Affairs Secretary Fiona Hyslop yesterday said the party wanted a “continued relationship” with Europe, but the nature of it would depend on how Brexit played out.
Former SNP cabinet minister Alex Neil also said a strongly pro-EU referendum could harm the Yes side’s chance of winning it.
Scottish LibDem leader Willie Rennie said it was “an absurd gap in the SNP’s argument”.
The SSA survey, which has asked about Scotland’s governance since devolution began in 1999, interviewed 1237 voters between last July and December.
For the first time, independence was the most popular constitutional option, with 46 per cent of people preferring it, against 42 per cent for devolution and 8 per cent wanting to abolish Holyrood.
Support for independence was double the 23 per cent recorded in 2012.
If there was a referendum tomorrow, 45 per cent said they would vote for the Union, and 44 per cent for leaving the UK.
“Support for independence has solidified in the last twelve months,” the report concluded.
Overall, 47 per cent of those aged 18-44 back independence, up 19 points on 2012, with an extraordinary 72 per cent of voters under 24 in favour of ending the Union.
In stark contrast, just 26 per cent of those aged over 65 support independence.
Given a growing sense of Scottish identity and recent SNP elections triumphs, Mr Curtice said: “All in all, nationalism in Scotland has never seemed to be in finer fettle.”
However the EU also emerged as an obstacle to Ms Sturgeon winning another referendum.
Despite the 62-38 vote to Remain in Scotland, the survey found 67 per cent of people either wanting to quit the EU (25 per cent) or curb its powers (42).
In 2014, the combined figure was 53 per cent.
The report said weak support for the EU meant it was unlikely to switg people to the Yes camp, with No voters, who the SNP needs to convert, the most intensely Eurosceptic.
A third of independence supporters also voted Leave last year, and their support could be at risk if independence is linked firmly to EU membership.
“There is a risk that linking independence closely to the idea of staying in the EU could alienate some of those who currently back leaving the UK,” Mr Curtice said.
Scottish Tory constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins said the report showed “significant division” in Scotland which would only be aggravated by a second referendum..
He said: “The people of Scotland do not want another referendum, and would prefer the SNP got on with dealing with the things that matter. Instead, schools, hospitals and transport infrastructure are being neglected at the expense of the nationalists’ separation obsession.”
Labour's Ian Murray said: “Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t have answers on Europe, and this report makes clear that Scotland’s attitudes towards this is much more complex than the SNP would admit. It also shows that heaping uncertainty on top of uncertainty is not the right approach for our country at this time.”
Mr Rennie added: “The SNP are using those that voted Remain for their own ends. Those that may vote for an independent Scotland because they wish to stay in the EU will be bitterly disappointed when the SNP turn their back on them. We are now facing the prospect of an independent Scotland outside the EU and the UK which would be a disaster.”
The SNP seized on the doubling of support for independence, and the youth backing for Yes.
MSP Bruce Crawford said: “While there is much work to do in setting out the challenges and opportunities of independence we start from a far stronger position. Scotland has fundamentally changed, the circumstances have shifted, and it is entirely right that the people get to choose what kind of country we now want to be.”
Green MSP Ross Greer added: “There’s a clear appetite for change with the EU but unlike Westminster, it is capable of reform and the only way we can shape that is with a seat at the table for Scotland.”
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