HERE we go again. Or do we?
What was conspicuous from Theresa May’s initial answer to Nicola Sturgeon’s call for another referendum on independence was any definitive response as to whether or not the Prime Minister will meet the First Minister’s request.
Those with good memories will recall how ahead of the 2014 vote the Scottish Government had to secure from the UK Parliament a so-called Section 30 Order, which transfers the power to hold a referendum from Westminster to Holyrood.
Then, David Cameron had no problem with it given Alex Salmond had won an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament even though there were quibbles over the timing, wording of the question and the franchise.
But this time around the UK Government believes the Scottish Government does not have a mandate to hold indyref2 because it does not have a majority; an argument totally rejected by the SNP leadership.
On February 2, Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, was asked whether or not the UK Government would facilitate another Scottish poll in this parliament and he, famously, replied: “No, forget it.”
No 10 later said Sir Michael’s remark was "consistent with our position that it was settled in 2014".
Ever since then Mrs May and her ministers have stuck to the line that while there could be a second poll, there should not be one.
Yesterday, Whitehall sources made clear that the Government’s non-answer on facilitating another independence referendum will be as far as they go for the moment; not wishing to fuel the political fire any more than they have to.
Downing Street yesterday stuck to its mantra. “We are clear as we have been for many, many months that there shouldn’t be a second referendum,” said Mrs May’s spokesman, noting how Holyrood had not yet voted on the matter.
But when the Fallon remarks were raised, as usual, he declined to answer and simply repeated the mantra.
Ms Sturgeon has been clear that it would be “inconceivable” for Westminster to gainsay the will of Holyrood if, as we expect, it supports the FM’s indyref2 desire thanks to a majority combination of Nationalists and Greens.
But all the Unionists in Edinburgh will be opposed to having another vote and, no doubt, all the Unionists in London will be too. So it raises the question whether or not a Section 30 could get through the Commons and Lords, where the vast majority of politicians will be opposed to it.
While Mrs May is stonewalling on the facilitation question, she might not be able to do so for much longer as on Tuesday she will face MPs during her Commons statement on last week’s EU summit and on Wednesday no doubt Angus Robertson, the SNP deputy leader, will raise it at PMQs.
However, there could be another option. The PM, with her government consumed by the Brexit talks, could agree to a Section 30 Order but put in a condition, a "sunrise clause"; that a second referendum could not be held until after withdrawal is complete; whenever that is.
Having gone through all the draining exercise of Brexit, Mrs May will need indyref2 like a hole in the head. We thought her legacy would be defined by Britain leaving the EU, we might be wrong; it could be by whether or not Britain survives beyond 2020.
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