FRENCH voters to go the polls tomorrow to choose the Conservative presidential candidate, which in normal times, would mean effectively choosing the next President. But, of course, these are not normal times.
Three candidates are seen as potential winners. Nicolas Sarkozy, 61, the former President, is seeking a comeback against his colleague Alain Juppe, 70, the favourite, who was Prime Minister under the presidency of Jacques Chirac. But coming up on the rails is Francois Fillon, 62, who was PM in Mr Sarkozy’s time at the Elysee Palace, and is gaining support.
Mr Sarkozy has sought to adopt the anti-Establishment tag and appealed to the hard Right by focusing on immigration and identity while Mr Juppe, a moderate, has targeted centre ground votes and Mr Fillon, a Catholic Conservative and ardent admirer of Margaret Thatcher, has pledged to cut 500,000 public sector workers’ jobs over five years.
If none of the candidates gets a majority of 50 per cent plus one, then it will go to a second round the following Sunday.
Given the deep unpopularity of the current Socialist President, Francois Hollande, polls suggest the final presidential head-to-head in May is set to be between the Republican candidate and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right Front National.
While, normally, the Republican candidate would be odds-on to win the presidential race, the anti-Establishment mood witnessed in the UK with the Brexit vote and in the US with Donald Trump’s victory, means a deal of uncertainty has entered the contest across the Channel.
Even if left-leaning voters throw their lot behind the Republican candidate to stop Mrs Le Pen, there is no guarantee, in the current atmosphere of populist uncertainty, that this would prevent her from becoming France’s first female president.
While turnout could be crucial, an extra dash of uncertainty has been added: the voting system has been changed.
Sunday’s Republican vote will, for the first time, be an open primary, meaning all voters will be able to take part as long as they have paid a fee and signed up to Republican values. The fee? Just two euros.
This is even cheaper than the £3 so-called registered supporters had to pay to take part in the Labour Party leadership, which saw Jeremy Corbyn voted in by an overwhelming majority.
Given some believe that a Le Pen victory in the spring could spell the beginning of the end for the European Union, not only France but Europe and beyond will be holding their breath come Sunday night.
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