Article 50 is scheduled to be triggered in March 2017, around the time of the council election campaign – so Brexit will be on voters’ minds next May.
Voters still consume UK-wide news media as well as the Scottish agenda and they are likely to hear a lot about Brexit.
Psephologists tend to see local elections as mini-general elections, and the numbers are extrapolated to assess what they would mean for parliamentary representation.
Read more: Beyond Brexit - Holyrood 'keeping Scottish councils in dark' about Brexit
National concerns tend to influence voter choice. There is not much evidence that local issues are particularly significant. Occasionally school closures, roads, or housing can elevate local factors but these are the exceptions.
This may benefit the SNP. They are Scotland’s new dominant party and 2017 is likely to see that dominance reflected across local authorities. The other parties are likely to struggle. Labour’s polling has collapsed, the best hope for the Tories are coalition deals, and the LibDems are still shaking off the legacy of the Tory coalition.
Read more: Beyond Brexit - Holyrood 'keeping Scottish councils in dark' about Brexit
Constitutional issues continue to dominate and the 2014 and 2016 referenda have not resolved either issue.
Surprisingly, however, the place of local government in Scotland’s institutional architecture is not debated. Local taxation, housing, education and social services are regularly discussed by councils but not the broader issue of how local government has developed since 1999.
Brexit will impact the policy environment of councils with EU directives in fields such as contracting, agriculture and fisheries potentially no longer relevant. Local control over these matters may become much more relevant, as will who controls them.
Dr Neil McGarvey, senior teaching fellow, politics, University of Strathclyde
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