The Chancellor faces an £84billion “black hole” in next month’s Autumn Statement in the wake of the shock Brexit vote, according to a leading think tank.
The Resolution Foundation today warns of what it calls a "sharp deterioration" in the public finances.
In response the Chancellor Philip Hammond could raise taxes, cut spending or sign up to “significantly” increased borrowing over the next five years, it warns in a new report.
Read more: Edinburgh's museums to be closed more often as cuts hit culture
The value of the pound plunged in the wake of the Brexit vote.
Economists have also warned that the UK could be headed for a combination of rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
Yesterday the chairman of Tesco warned that food prices were "very likely" to rise as a result of Brexit.
John Allan said the fall in the value of sterling would have a knock-on impact on customers.
The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney also admitted that banks could "adjust some activity” just days after warnings that bosses had their hands "poised quivering over the relocate button" because of Brexit fears.
Matt Whittaker, the chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Despite the long-term impact of Brexit remaining very uncertain at this stage, there is a strong consensus among economists that post-referendum uncertainty will lead to deterioration in the public finances, which were coming in below expectation even before the referendum.
Read more: Edinburgh's museums to be closed more often as cuts hit culture
“We won’t know the OBR's verdict until 23 November but our analysis shows that the Chancellor may face a new £84bn borrowing black hole and the prospect of breaking the fiscal rules inherited from his predecessor. Rather than announcing very significant further tax rises or spending cuts in the face of renewed economic headwinds, the Chancellor is right therefore to press the fiscal reset button and set a new economic course for the remainder of the parliament."
New rules could help investment and the so-called 'struggling classes', he said, but would need “significantly higher borrowing”.
Meanwhile, Labour called on ministers to "come clean" on the state of the public finances after a leaked Treasury document admitted it was "unlikely" to meet its deficit reduction target.
The briefing paper said that the figures continued to show a "run of disappointing data" on the economy, which it blamed on lower than expected tax returns.
It added that ministers were on course to overshoot the public sector net borrowing target by almost £16 billion next year.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the briefing note confirmed the "Tory failure on the economy".
He said: "Now we've had it from the official civil servants it's time the Tories came clean. They should drop the spin and admit the truth: they are failing on the public finances and working people are paying the price."
Read more: Edinburgh's museums to be closed more often as cuts hit culture
A Treasury spokesman said: "The Chancellor has been clear that while the deficit has been cut, it is still too high. The Government is committed to balancing the books over a sensible period of time, in a way that allows space to support the economy."
Meanwhile, Mr Hammond warned MPs that the EU could be politically motivated to give the UK a worse than expected Brexit deal.
Advocates of leaving the European Union argue that an agreement that is acceptable to both sides is in the EU's interests, because of the large amount of trade it does with the UK.
But Mr Hammond suggested that EU leaders could be motivated by other factors, to the UK’s detriment.
Separately, Sterling staged a minor recovery after Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that market reactions to Brexit may be "mistaken".
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel