YOUNGER voters and those with degrees are far more likely to back remaining in the EU at the upcoming referendum, a new analysis of opinion polls and surveys has found.
The findings also show that Labour and Conservative voters remain split over the issue, ahead of the vote which is likely to be held within two years.
The report, which uses data from NatCen’s British Social Attitudes survey, the British Election Study and a series of recent polls, has been launched to mark a new project led by Professor John Curtice.
Professor Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research, provided a regular analysis of opinion polls in the run-up to the referendum on Scottish independence and is launching a similar initiative ahead of the EU vote, What UK Thinks: Europe, which will offer comprehensive collection of polling data and commentary on attitudes towards Europe.
He said that research suggested more than two in three voters aged under 35 would prefer to remain in the EU, compared to just a quarter who want out. However, just 45 per cent of over 55s wish to remain.
Support for leaving the EU is highest amongst those without any educational qualifications and lowest amongst university graduates. Two surveys indicated that if the decision was left to those without formal qualifications, Britain would vote to leave. However, one survey found as few as 15 per cent of graduates backed a UK exit.
Unlike the independence referendum, where women were consistently more likely to back a No vote, no significant gender split on the issue of the EU has yet been detected.
An analysis of recent opinion polls show that Conservative voters are split down the middle on how to vote, with 42 per cent each favouring in and out. Just over a quarter of Labour supporters plan to vote to leave the EU, with 58 per cent hoping to stay.
While there is less data on SNP voters, a recent survey showed 24 per cent plan to vote to leave compared to 64 per cent who want to remain.
In his analysis, Professor Curtice raises the prospect of the EU vote leading to a second independence referendum, saying: "Should the UK as a whole vote narrowly to leave the EU, it seems highly likely that Scotland and perhaps Wales will have voted at least narrowly in the opposite direction, thereby potentially creating new debates about the future of the United Kingdom."
He added that overall, the British public is "seriously divided" over Europe. He added: "The referendum is not only going to be a debate about the UK’s future relationship with the EU, but also seems set to expose a significant social division between those who feel they are likely to be winners in an international jobs market and those who do not. The outcome will thus tell us a lot about what kind of country we would prefer to be."
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