THE Scottish Government’s justice agenda has suffered another blow after a watchdog declined to rubber stamp its upcoming domestic abuse statistics.
The crucial figures, based on Police Scotland raw numbers, won’t carry an official seal of approval by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) due to their unreliability.
Ministers have made tackling domestic abuse a key priority and police have adopted a zero tolerance approach across the country.
Between April 1 and December 16 last year, police were called to more than 42,000 domestic incidents, of which children were at home in 34% of the cases.
The latest figures were supposed to be published in the spring of this year but were delayed by six months due to teething problems with pulling the stats together from the old legacy forces.
The data is expected to be released later this month.
However, it has emerged that the figures will be released with a major health warning attached.
One of the the UKSA’s roles is to confirm official figures as “national statistics”, which means they comply with the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.
According to correspondence between the UKSA and the Scottish Government, the domestic abuse stats will be published without this seal of approval.
The same is also true for the Scottish Government’s figures on firearms certificates.
Background: the problem with police statistics
In a letter, Ed Humpherson, the UKSA's director general for regulation, wrote: “I agree with you [a senior Government civil servant] that because of the uncertainties around the quality of the data in each of these situations, these statistics should not be published as National Statistics.
“When you next publish each of these sets of statistics, I would encourage you to clearly explain the nature and extent of the data quality issues, and the impact that each of these has on the statistics, in order that users can be fully informed about issues that may affect their use of the statistics.”
He concluded: “I would appreciate updates from you as you work to improve these statistics.”
Caption: Labour MSP Graeme Pearson has concerns over the data
It is understood the “quality” issues relate to missing data which makes it difficult to offer judgements on the overall figures.
Although the data comes from the single force, the figures are ultimately the responsibility of the Scottish Government,
Graeme Pearson, the Scottish Labour justice spokesman, said: "Government Ministers have made tackling domestic abuse a priority, so it is unacceptable that they have been unable to verify the statistical gathering methods. It is impossible to deliver an effective policing service if you do not know the size of the problem in the first place."
Liberal Democrat MSP Alison McInnes pointed the finger at both the Government and the force: "Domestic abuse is a hugely serious crime. If we are to ensure that victims are getting the support they need and the right resources are in place, we need an accurate picture of offending. The Scottish Government has boasted that crime is at record lows. How can we have faith in what they say if we cannot trust official statistics?"
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The UK Statistics Authority has agreed to a recommendation from Scotland's Chief Statistician that the upcoming domestic abuse 2013-14 & 2014-15 statistics should be published as Official Statistics, rather than National Statistics.
“This is as a result of some issues identified in both the Police Scotland legacy and new data systems. We will continue to work with Police Scotland going forward and hope to re-visit our position on the designation of these statistics once this work has concluded.”
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