THE prospect of a second independence poll in the near future looks increasingly unlikely after John Swinney made clear there would have to be “strong and consistent evidence” among a large number of No voters that they had changed their mind in order for one to be held.

Already at Westminster there is a growing mood among SNP MPs that the party has not only to learn the lessons of why the Yes camp lost the poll last year, particularly on economic matters, but also to be in a position where the Nationalist movement feels totally confident that the vast majority of Scots want independence.

One SNP MP suggested that the opinion polls would have to show support for independence to be at least 60 per cent for a year before the leadership contemplated risking another referendum. “We can’t afford to lose another one or that really would be it for a generation,” the MP said.

Ahead of Nicola Sturgeon addressing the SNP conference, the Scottish Finance Secretary said: “There has to be strong and consistent evidence of a change of attitude among the proportion of a large number of No voters to enable there to be a referendum. That is essentially putting the issue into the hands of the people of Scotland, where it properly should be handled.”

Mr Swinney explained a number of issues from the EU referendum and the replacement of the Trident nuclear deterrent had an ability to change the debate on a second independence poll.

“Some substantial things may emerge that change the debate, for example the situation on the European referendum, such as the impact of the UK government’s austerity attack and the benefit attacks, such as the whole approach to renewing the Trident nuclear missile system programme. What does that do to the debate in Scotland? This is a debate that can develop and change,” he noted.

Meantime, Ken Clarke, the former Conservative Chancellor, warned the SNP leadership against complacency and said he did not believe the current domination of the SNP over Scottish politics would “last for too long”.

Cautioning against hubris, the Nottingham MP said: “I would want somebody in my immediate entourage, who would tell me at least daily ‘remember you are mortal.’”

He said there had to be someone telling the leadership that voters would get bored with complete dominance and that “Scotland will not live with a Kazakhstan-type parliament. We’re a single-issue party, a protest party; that won’t last”.

He added: “My main point would be if you just carry on being Scottish Nationalists demanding another referendum with about two opposition members in the Scottish Parliament, people will get bored; demonstrate competence.”