Scotland appears to have enjoyed the highest cereal harvest yield for 20 years, but farmers say the figures hide serious problems and consumers are unlikely to benefit from any great price reductions

According to the first estimates for the 2015 Scottish cereal and oilseed rape harvest, published today, Scottish farms are thought to have produced 3.3 million tonnes of cereals this year, a rise of 24,000 tonnes on 2014’s figure. The overall increase in cereal production this year is due to a five per cent rise in yields, despite estimates of the total area planted having fallen by four per cent overall.

Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Food and Environment Richard Lochhead welcomed the projected figures:

“This year’s cereal harvest estimates are testament to the professionalism and hard work of Scotland’s farmers. They are a great achievement, especially considering the poor growing conditions we have had in Scotland, with some parts of the country experiencing the wettest summer in a century."

He was pleased to see such high yields being reported this year, which had undoubtedlybeen helped by the recent spell of more settled weather conditions. However he was aware that producers in some areas, such as Shetland, had yet to harvest their crops.

Meanwhile NFU Scotland’s Combinable Crops Policy Manager Peter Loggie said:

“Results from our own survey indicated that, for many in the main growing areas of Scotland, yields for the 2015 harvest were well above average. However, away from our main arable areas, those growing crops in the west, Caithness, Sutherland, Orkney and Shetland will have seen yields hammered by a cold and wet summer and there are parts of Scotland where harvest has still to be completed due to the late season.

“Regardless of where growers are, or how their harvest has been, a bigger issue will be on price. Grain prices remain badly depressed due to expectations of a big supply of wheat on world markets. World prices have the biggest influence on home market prices so for those who managed to achieve these high yields, they will simply help offset the low price. “

So it is unlikely record harvests will mean consumers will see any great price reductions in the shops, as David Martin, Head of Policy and External Affairs at the Scottish Retail Consortium, confirmed:

"Given the intense competition in the grocery market it is clear that any opportunity to reduce prices for consumers will be seized upon by retailers.

"However, whilst the cereal harvest will have some impact, that impact will be extremely limited because grain prices have been dropping for some time and are already lower than last year. Also, the cost of grain in most products is limited, for example the price of wheat is on average less than 10% of the final cost of a loaf of bread."