A former First Minister has warned he fears the UK will leave the European Union – potentially triggering Scottish independence – within the next five years.

Lord McConnell said he thought it was now “more likely than not” that Britain would exit the EU.

A lack of charismatic leadership at Westminster coupled with "a new politics ...(where) emotion beats evidence” could see anti-EU feeling sweep voters like a "forest fire", he predicted.

His warning follows an opinion poll earlier this month which suggested that more people would now back leaving the EU than staying.

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has already said that leaving the EU could be grounds for another independence referendum.

When he was Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg predicted that Brexit would see Scotland become independent “in a heartbeat”.

David Cameron has pledged to win the EU referendum, due to be held in 2017, after securing concessions from Brussels.

But in an interview with The Herald, Lord McConnell said: “I’m now absolutely convinced that it is more likely that Britain will vote to leave the EU than vote to stay.

“I think the combination of a lack of confident and charismatic leadership in the centre of British politics, the lack of convincing and charismatic leadership in Europe and the new politics in which emotion beats evidence on almost every occasion is now a serious threat to Britain’s membership of the EU."

He added that in his opinion it was also “entirely possible that even Scotland might vote to leave”.

He said: “The potential for a movement to gather speed, for a forest fire to move across the country towards the exit, I think if that momentum builds it might be very hard to reverse."

He said that Brexit would be “absolutely catastrophic to the country, to our young people and have a terrible impact on peace and stability in the world, not just on the economy but on our security and the balance of the world."

He added: “And one of the potential consequences is that we would also have the break-up of the UK.

“Within the next five years it is not impossible that we could have a UK outside the EU and a Scotland outside the UK."

New Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn warned earlier this week he could not write the Prime Minister a 'blank cheque" over Europe.

Lord McConnell, who was First Minister from 2001 to 2007, said: "You should not take an attitude to this referendum that is based on where powers lie between the UK and the EU at this moment in time.

"You either believe that there are co-operative European solutions to the challenging problems facing the world or you don't."

He said it was "urgent that the fightback for European co-operation starts now".

The consequences of Brexit "would shake the foundations of these islands and our role in the world in ways that we cannot even predict".

He added: "If Britain votes to leave then all bets are off on who is next to leave. It could be the start of the dismantling of the EU".

Lord McConnell also said he thought Scotland was in a "bad place politically" after last year’s referendum.

He hit out at those who believe that the independence vote re-energised Scottish politics.

"They are in danger of becoming the Scottish equivalent of the Westminster bubble," he said.

"In the same way as those engaged in politics in London think that everybody is excited by politics and they are wrong, I think those who continue to be excited about the constitutional debate are gradually losing touch.

"But they are the dominant voices in Scottish political discourse – on all sides.”

He said: "I think Scotland is in a bad place politically. We had a referendum in which you had a very high turnout and a relatively clear result but one year on the issue is as live as it has ever been and continues to dominate all public discourse. To the detriment of debate on the economy, on education, the environment and on the other big issues of the day.

"Where stands Scotland in 2015? I don’t currently feel optimistic or energised by where we are. And I think that is a real shame. A decade ago, regardless of what people thought politically, Scotland was energised - it was an exciting place, there were things happening. But I think this relentless focus on one issue - which I don’t attribute to one individual or party - is draining energy from Scotland".

He also described the ‘Vow’ signed by pro-Union party leaders just days before the vote as a "mistake".

"It was wrong to panic," he said. "Before that, it was wrong to be complacent, and it was certainly wrong to make a vow that had not been thought through and whose sole achievement was going to be to continue the debate after the referendum. Without the 'Vow' the referendum result might have been a bit more of a stable outcome."