A year ago, the independence referendum brought about an earthquake in voting behaviour. Old loyalties and voting patterns were discarded as thousands of people across Scotland ignored the advice of the parties they had supported for decades and voted for independence.
The aftershocks are still being felt throughout Scottish politics and it is still not clear what, if any, new patterns of voting behaviour will emerge over the next year or so.
For many years before the independence vote, the Scottish political scene appeared relatively stable. Labour was dominant as the Conservatives slowly faded. The fortunes of the Liberals/Liberal Democrats waxed and waned, while the SNP did well in elections for Holyrood, but less well in UK elections.
The extraordinary independence referendum campaign released dormant political energies, especially on the Yes side. Political debate dominated everyday conversation as the polls showed an unheard-of level of political engagement.
The campaign produced a record turnout and a smaller No majority than expected, while turning Scottish voting habits on their head.
Many Labour voters defected to the Yes side, loosening the party’s grip on its traditional citadel Glasgow, where 53 per cent voted Yes.
The general election followed hard on the heels of the referendum and, far from being cast down by its defeat, the SNP surged ahead in opinion polling, under its new leader Nicola Sturgeon.
Qualitative research by TNS found that voters in Scotland liked the SNP’s upbeat, confident message, delivered by the party’s credible leader in an accessible way, in contrast to the downbeat managerial language of the other parties. In the eyes of some, Labour was tainted by its alliance with the Tories in the Better Together campaign. The SNP was seen as better at standing up for Scotland.
By February, the SNP was polling in the upper forties, and in the May election, the party took 50 per cent of the vote, winning 56 of the 59 seats in a turnout of 71.1 per cent, the highest since 1997.
Polling this year suggests that the momentum of the referendum is still working to the advantage of the SNP. In the four TNS surveys conducted so far, ahead of the May 2016 Holyrood elections, the SNP has scored around the 60 per cent mark, an extraordinary level of support for a party in a multi-party democracy.
The unionist parties are still picking themselves up from the floor, where the SNP’s 2015 landslide left them. Scottish Labour now has a new leader, though its recent modest recovery in TNS polling still leaves it – at 23 per cent - below the 24.3 per cent it received in that election.
The Liberal Democrats, at 5 per cent in the most recent poll, are also down on their general election score. The Conservatives continue to decline, even under the leadership of the widely respected Ruth Davidson. They are currently on 12 per cent, down from 14.9 per cent in the general election and half the party’s worst share of the vote in Scotland under Margaret Thatcher.
The most recent polling also shows that support for independence remains strong, with the Yes side leading by 53 per cent-47 per cent among those who expressed an opinion.
However, independence is low on most voters’ list of important concerns. A TNS survey this summer found that healthcare, education and training and employment/jobs were the top three issues for voters. Independence and devolving more powers to Holyrood were in joint 10th place. SNP voters shared the top three concerns of their fellow citizens, with more powers fourth and independence fifth.
So, in spite of the excitement of the referendum and the apparently strong support for independence, constitutional change remains low on most voters’ priorities.
TNS polling has also shown that only between a quarter and a third rate the Scottish government’s record as good on four key issues: the economy, the NHS, education and crime and justice.
The referendum campaign, at least on the Yes side, was all about vision and hope for the future. It may be that Scottish politics will focus more on the traditional key issues in the next few years. There are some signs that this is already happening, with Sturgeon preferring to talk about education rather than another referendum.
*Tom Costley is head of TNS Scotland
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