SUPPORT for the SNP has risen to 62 per cent, according to a new poll which predicts a landslide victory for Nicola Sturgeon’s party in next May’s Holyrood election.
However, the TNS survey also found only modest levels of satisfaction with the SNP’s performance in government, with no more than a third of voters believing the Nationalists had done well in four key policy areas.
The survey of 1062 over-16s found 62 per cent planned to vote SNP in the constituency section of the ballot in the Holyrood election.
The figure was up two per cent compared with TNS’s previous poll.
They were ahead of Labour on 20 per cent (unchanged); the Conservatives on 12 per cent (down two points) and the Lib Dem on three per cent (also down two).
There were similar minor changes in party support in the regional list vote, with the SNP on 54 per cent (up three points), Labour on 20 per cent (down one), the Conservatives on 12 per cent (down one1), the Greens on eight per cent (up one) and Liberal Democrats on four per cent (down one).
However, respondents delivered a mixed verdict on the SNP government’s record on four key policy areas over the past 12 months, with only between a quarter and a third rating its performance as good.
On the NHS and on crime and justice, 29 per cent of adults said the SNP administration had performed poorly – including a quarter of the SNP’s own supporters.
Among all adults, the government’s ratings were:
§ The economy: Good 25 per cent, Poor 24 per cent, Neither 45 per cent.
§ The NHS: Good 34 per cent, Poor 29 per cent, Neither 33 per cent.
§ Education: Good 30 per cent, Poor 19 per cent, Neither 40 per cent.
§ Crime and Justice: Good 23 per cent, Poor 29 per cent, Neither 40 per cent.
Tom Costley, Head of TNS Scotland, said: “It is interesting that the SNP has such a strong lead in voting intentions for the Scottish parliament while only a third or fewer of voters view its performance in the past year in a positive light.
“This poll suggests that the opposition parties may find voters ready to listen to their alternative policies, although with Labour still engaged in leadership elections at Scottish and UK level, the SNP’s chief rival in Scotland is not yet ready to present a programme to the electorate.
“The SNP’s position may be largely due to the positive mood surrounding its strong performance in the referendum and general election. But there has been extensive media reporting of problems on devolved issues, especially in the NHS and around the new unified Police Scotland.
“The SNP now has an opportunity to build the case for its record in government before the Holyrood election campaign gets properly under way towards the end of this year.”
According to the widely-used ScotlandVotes online seat predictor, the SNP would emerge with 78 of Holyrood’s 129 MSPs, nine more than at present.
Labour would win 25 seats – all from the regional lists – down from 37 at present, while the Conservatives would maintain their tally of 15 seats.
The Lib Dems would win two seats (down from five) and be overtaken by the Greens, who are on course to take nine seats, up from two.
The SNP would win all but two of Holyrood’s 73 constituency seats. ScotlandVotes suggests the Lib Dems would hold Shetland and the Tories would hold Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire in the Borders.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel