Labour vote is being replaced by 'Yes' vote in left-wing heartlands

Where the vote appears to be wobbling most is obvious: it is in communities such as Hurlford, a village on the edge of Kilmarnock. It has always been solidly Labour-voting in Hurlford - it was a man from just down the road in Cumnock, Keir Hardie, who invented Labour in the first place - but according to the SNP's polling of the streets of the village, "Yes" are ahead.

The polling is not scientific (there are often more "no-ins" than "nos") but Marie Clowes, 56, is a good example of the kind of Labour voter who is voting "Yes".

Ms Clowes, who was born and bred in Hurlford, has voted Labour every time. When the referendum campaign began, she was a "No" voter. She could see the argument that George Galloway has been making that socialism is an international movement and that the poor in Gateshead matter as much as the poor in Glasgow.

But then she had an epiphany. She said: "What changed my mind was Mrs Thatcher died and it awakened feelings of anger about the Tories and I thought to myself: 'While Nelson Mandela was being decried down there as a terrorist by the Iron Lady, he was getting the freedom of Glasgow'.

"And then the next thing I thought was that when the whole world was against us, Kenny MacAskill freed Abdelbasset al-Megrahi to international condemnation. It was these two things that made me stop and say: 'Wait a minute, we can be different'. I think there is a different culture in Scotland. We cannot save the English working class - they have got to save themselves."

Ms Clowes believes her experience is typical in the housing schemes of Kilmarnock and Scotland - but it is not quite as simple as that. Not only does rural Ayrshire appear to be solidly "No", there are many Labour voters in the towns, including many who have suffered because of its economic problems, who are voting "No".

Alasdair Fife is a good example. He is 72 and for many years worked for BMK carpets, one of the leaders in the textile industry which served Kilmarnock well. When it pulled out of Kilmarnock, like so many other industries have done including Johnnie Walker whisky, Mr Fife was made redundant. He is angry that the Scottish textile industry has been dismantled but he does not think independence or its leaders have the answer.

"The financial arguments are important, especially in Kilmarnock," he said. "Think of the industry that has gone away.

"Alex Salmond came here and spoke when Johnnie Walker went under and there was a march which I attended and he promised he would be doing something about it - but we have never seen hide nor hair of him since."

It is economic common sense that has led him to vote "No", says Mr Fife.

The question is though: will it be the economic arguments that sway the day? At the "Yes" campaign offices in John Finnie Street in the town, the word that keeps coming up among the volunteers is "hope".

On the main wall there is a big clock marked "Westminster" and above it is painted the word "equality", the idea being that the campaign is counting away from the first and towards the second.

According to Dougie Reid, who is organising the pamphlet-folding and envelope-licking here - it all looks surprisingly old school - this hopeful argument is winning through, particularly on the housing schemes. Mr Reid believes Kilmarnock has traditionally supported Labour because it is a radical area but that the more radical option now is "Yes". And that is when the word "hope" comes up again. "Voting 'Yes' is seen as something positive," he said, "something for their kids and something for their future."

One of the volunteers in the office, Jean Kidd, is certainly hopeful and believes that her home town will be economically better off in an independent Scotland. "Westminster is not giving us enough money," she said, "and if we have money for jobs, we can make it work for the country." Ms Kidd worked for 35 years for Johnnie Walker before she was made redundant, but does not believe that independence will encourage more companies to leave their Scottish bases. "I do not think they will," she said. "I think it is the fatcats up at the top that are trying to threaten their employees."

Ms Kidd and her colleagues believe their message is getting through in many parts of Kilmarnock, although it is hard to tell how broad-based the support is (I ask if anyone working for the "Yes" side in the town has ever voted Lib-Dem or Tory and they cannot think of anyone). There are also some in Kilmarnock who are turned off by the SNP message, even those who might be expected to be receptive to it.

Laura Hynds for example. She is a 39-year-old nurse working in the NHS and is Kilmarnock born and bred - but she has been angered by the SNP's suggestions that the NHS would only be safe in an independent Scotland. "The health service is already fully devolved and I think that is what people in Scotland do not realise," she said. "That is why a lot of people have been swayed to vote 'Yes' because they believe that if they do not, the health service is going to be privatised. It is scaremongering."

Even so, it is clear that traditional Labour voters such as Ms Hynds are going both ways. After Mr Brown's speech, local Labour MP Cathy Jamieson said she believed the vote would be close in Kilmarnock but that people who had experienced economic difficulties should not be tempted by a "Yes" vote.

"There is always the argument that some people may say: 'What have I got to lose?'," said Ms Jamieson, "but the other side of that is they have a lot to lose."

That is not how old Labour voters like Marie Clowes see it. She believes the "Yes" campaign is the beginning but not the end of a movement. "There is a resolution to keep together after the referendum," she said. "It is hard to break away from the Labour movement but it is not a Labour movement any more. It is a Labour party of elite politicians. We are too busy to work out details right now but the 'Yes' campaign is different: it is a movement."