THE most pressing question the 200 million people of Indonesia face is whether President Suharto will pack his bags and go after 32 years of autocratic rule or whether he will have to be driven from office. There is no way forward politically, economically,
or socially for this struggling nation if Suharto clings to power at a cost of even greater bloodshed on the streets than was seen last week on television screens around the globe. Discontent has spread from the students, the mob, and opposition leaders to the very heart of Suharto's empire. Speaker Harmoko, the top civilian in Indonesia and the leader of Suharto's own political group, has seen the writing on the wall. His call yesterday for the president's resignation was a big breakthrough for the forces of change. Harmoko has the power to convene an emergency meeting of the Consultative Assembly, the body which rubber-stamped Suharto's re-election for a seventh term
in March.
Hopes rose that Harmoko's intervention was the last straw for the president. There was speculation that a news conference called by General Wiranto, the head of the armed forces and the Minister of Defence, would confirm that Suharto was going. But as yet expectations that Wiranto would defect have proved wide of the mark. Instead the general claimed that Harmoko was acting unconstitutionally and he called for the mass protests across Indonesia planned for tomorrow to be cancelled. He is unlikely to get his way if the Muslim leader, Amien Rais, has anything to do with the matter. Unhappily, the stage could now be set for a confrontation between millions of discontented Indonesians from every class of society and the armed forces.
Change is inevitable in Indonesia. If it was not for the mounting pressure for an end to military dictatorship there would still be pressure for an end to the cronyism which is at the heart of the Indonesian economy. Since Suharto's own family was the principal beneficiary, little progress has been made on this front despite it being
a top demand from the International
Monetary Fund in exchange for a huge
loan to bail the country out. The Suhartos are among the few not to be suffering
grievously from the collapse of the currency and the consequential inflation and unemployment. The looting and rioting can only have aggravated the economic situation. Latterly Suharto's hold on power was tied to the country's economic success, but when this collapsed like a pack of cards the end was in sight for him.
By all accounts the president is a stubborn man. He would have had to have been to rule his country with absolute power as long as he has. Yet military dictatorships are
a dying breed as the twentieth century draws to a close. Repression is not a serious option. Television turns the dead into public figures. If Suharto recognises that the
odds are stacked against him he can go gracefully. At this stage it is better not to contemplate the alternative.
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