EXCLUSIVE
THE SNP has a mountain to climb if it is to translate its current surge in party support into backing for full independence in a referendum.
According to a specially-commissioned Herald/System Three poll designed to cross-check recent dramatic shifts in Scottish party political opinion in our regular monthly surveys, support for the option of full independence has stalled at 34%.
This is the same level found by our last constitutional poll 18 months ago and
well behind the 58% who say they are happy to stick with devolution.
Even among those planning to vote SNP 11 months from now, 40% say they would prefer Scotland to remain part of the UK, a finding which is likely to send
SNP
leader Alex Salmond back to think again about the euphoria of recent party standings.
The new survey means support for independence remains very much at historic levels and has failed to track the recent surge in party support for the SNP
in
the context of a Scottish Parliament election, which a fortnight ago put the party five points ahead of Labour in our monthly Herald/System Three
poll.
Now that the status quo based exclusively on Westminster has been left behind,
support for the new consensus based on a Scottish Parliament within the UK could win by 58% to 34% if that question was put in the kind of referendum which is SNP policy for the first term of a Home Rule Parliament.
The poll was conducted between May 15 -18 among 1068 voters in 38 constituencies. The finding erects a huge question mark over the SNP's stated policy of insisting on such a referendum in the first term of any administration in which it is the biggest single party.
It will also cast a cloud over what was set to be a euphoric special
conference
in Perth next month.
It could even re-open old party wounds between the fundamentalist and gradualist wings of the party if recent poll advances are seen to have been a false dawn. Against that, the SNP leadership will claim vindication for the stance that progress must be at a pace acceptable to the people and that independence is ''a process not an event''.
The demand for a referendum has led to widespread debate across the party divide in Scotland this week, with some Liberal Democrats suggesting that they
would have no problem supporting such a poll if it were the price of a deal with the Nationalists at Holyrood. Then Labour MP John McAllion suggested that
he too felt public opinion should be tested in such a plebiscite.
Our latest survey suggests that in spite of Scottish Secretary Donald Dewar's strong criticism of such a manoeuvre, Mr McAllion may be right that this is
the
best tactic to draw the SNP's sting.
The special Herald/System Three poll shows that within the 58:34 split over devolution/independence there are intriguing anomalies. While 56% of those planning to vote SNP next May are supporters of independence, 40% favour only devolution. Within Labour, 65% support Home Rule only, but fully 29% say they would vote for independence.
The monthly Herald/System Three poll has shown a surge in support for the SNP,
drawing level with Labour last month then pulling five points ahead. But this appears to be more of a bargaining chip in favour of strong devolution, with the new, bigger pool of seemingly Nationalist support actually lukewarm about full independence.
The SNP has always argued that constitutional polls hinge on negative or positive wording of questions, but Mr Salmond said last night: ''We turned a 30% differential on party standings last year into a positive result this year
and we will do the same on the constitutional issue. This is 9% up on two
years
ago and emphasises the point that this whole thing is not a snapshot but a process.''
Scottish Office Minister Brian Wilson said: ''This poll confirms that the
great
majority of the Scottish population want a Scottish Parliament within the UK.
It shows they want the Scottish Parliament to work for the good of Scotland rather than the permanent constitutional chaos which is all the Nationalists have to offer.''
As the debate on the likely impact of moves towards independence rumbled on, Shadow Chancellor Peter Lilley called such talk ''a nightmare scenario the Scottish Parliament could well do without in its formative years''.
Leader comment Page 20
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article