WILL Scotland's pubs go the way of the corner shop, and be swallowed up by the pub chains of tomorrow?
In the future will there be a well-kept, food-serving, pub called the Rat & Firkin, or whatever, on every corner?
Scotland's pub trade is very different from the rest of Britain. Here, 80% of the ''on-trade'' - alcohol-selling pubs, hotels, and restaurants - are still independently owned.
In England, it is the opposite, with 80% of outlets in the hands of the large brewery and leisure giants. And now they want a larger slice of the action in Scotland.
The expansion plans announced yesterday by Whitbread and Scottish & Newcastle are the forerunners of further forays by the big companies, who see Scotland as the last outpost to be conquered.
One of the reasons why brewers' pubs were so bad in the past was the large number of uninterested staff who saw working in a pub as something to be done between real jobs. Customers merely got in the way of bored barmaids discussing their intimate secrets with colleagues.
Now, the leisure companies, with their chains of themed bars and restaurants, are offering training schemes and career structures so they can provide the level of service only seen previously in independent bars.
Other chains, such as Weatherspoons, which are not linked to a specific brewery, think big is beautiful and open up huge bars with big turnovers.
In cities like Glasgow there may be room for such competition. But in smaller towns, Kilmarnock, Paisley and Glenrothes to name a few, there are concerns that this type of bar will force the independents to the wall.
Mr Pat Duffy, editor of the Scottish Licensed Trade News, said yesterday: ''The chains see Scotland as virgin territory.
''They see the benefits of running the pubs in their chains all the same way, and can therefore transfer staff from one to the other.
''But it may end up like supermarkets where jobs are created every time one is opened, but jobs are lost in the corner shops which cannot compete.''
The big leisure companies will say that in offering food, comfort and child-friendly premises, they are satisfying a demand which has not been met in the past.
It could also be argued that there is a bit too much nostalgia about free houses. Not all independent pubs meet the standards of a family-run bar. A few would give public toilets a bad name, and a request for crisps in some places can be met with the reply: ''What do you think this is? An ice cream van?''
Where the chains might be dangerous to independent pubs is in the area of prices.
A barrel of beer may have a list price of #240, but an astute publican with a good turnover should be able to negotiate a discount of between 10-20%.
The large chains will use their buying power to squeeze as much discount as possible, forcing the brewers to give less of a discount to the independents to make up the shortfall.
Mr Paul Waterson, of the Scottish Licensed Trade Association, said there should be a ceiling on licenses.
He fears the return of cheap drinks promotions, leading to more public drunkenness and further curfews by local councils.
After all, beer drinking in pubs actually dropped last year by 3%. Cask conditioned ales have dropped by 15%, but pubs have managed to keep, or improve, their volumes through more expensive premium brands, particularly in bottles. Belgian beer Stella Artois, from a small base, grew by 27% last year.
If there is a recession, will the gimmicks return to keep up margins?
In the meantime, the phenomenal investment in themed bars and restaurants will continue. Analysts estimate that the industry spent between #800m and #1000m on buying new sites or refurbishing existing pubs in the past year.
Going out for a meal or a drink is now an established part of many people's routine, and the large companies want to take as much of that spend as possible.
Whether your local pub will survive the competition remains to be seen. Linoleum floors, a nicotine-stained ceiling, slops, and an alsatian under the table, are no longer the amenities that guarantee a pub's survival.
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