IT isn't just Tony Blair and New Labour who face their first political test since last May tomorrow night. The English local elections are just as vital to William Hague and the Tories. They desperately need a sign of forgiveness from the electorate.

Although only seven Tory-run councils are up for grabs, the Conservatives are starting from the rock-bottom they reached in the disastrous 1994 elections. Failure to make any noticeable gains tomorrow will be taken as evidence that Mr Hague has so far failed to restore his party's credibility. Scotland must wait until the elections for Holyrood next May to issue its verdict on Blairism. And if the remarkable System Three figures elsewhere in today's Herald are anything to go by, the judgment could be brutal.

England, where the New Labour euphoria shows little sign of abating, has so far registered little interest in Thursday's poll. For the time being all soundings suggest voters have had enough of politics and are unlikely to flock to the polling stations. The scale of last year's Commons revolution seems to have satisfied the popular thirst for change.

In England nearly 20 million voters have a chance to elect more than 4000 local councillors in 32 London boroughs, 36 metropolitan authorities, more than 80 shire districts, and 10 new unitary authorities. Out of the 166 councils facing elections, Labour controls more than 90. The Lib Dems hold just over 20, the Tories just seven, and 46 are under no overall control.

A low turnout is exactly what the Tory high command is hoping for. Their voters are by tradition more committed to the cause and therefore more willing to make the democratic effort. Labour voters, the psephologists will tell you, are more easily put off by boredom and a threat of rain.

So on that basis experts are suggesting Labour could suffer its first noticeable reversals since storming Westminster last year. A string of traditional strongholds are tipped to fall, either by slipping out of Labour's overall control or by going to the Liberal Democrats and even the Conservatives. It is this last prospect which Mr Hague clings to this week.

Apathy is not the only force playing against Mr Blair, who broke away from the Middle East peace talks in London yesterday to appeal for voters to do their bit. In parts of London and the north of England long-running sleaze rows threaten to cost Labour dear.

In Liverpool, Sheffield, Hull, and Doncaster, party sources admit, Labour seats could fall amid voter dismay with the way councillors have abused their expenses, although each is an area where the party is entrenched and is expected to retain control of the authorities.

Officials at Labour's Millbank headquarters fear that, at worse, disenchantment with their local representatives could see voters switch their allegiance to other parties. But they hope instinctive loyalties will prevail and that those who are really unhappy will stay home.

The last hours of what has been an uneventful campaign will be dominated by Government warnings of what might happen if Labour's supporters stay home. The prospect of a dangerously low turnout prompted Mr Blair to warn yesterday: ''I know that many Labour voters believe they did their job last year by voting for the Labour Government. It would be a real mistake to stay at home on Thursday and not bother to vote.

''That way people could end up getting a Conservative or Liberal Democrat council by the back door. To get the best deal for local people, it's important that local councils and central government work together.'' Four years ago Labour gained a net 150 seats on a remarkable turnout of 46%. It was the first time, experts say, voters had a chance to react to the re-election of the Major Government two years previously.

In an attempt to turn the tables on Mr Hague, Mr Blair suggested yesterday that all eyes should be on the Tories. ''If they don't make very big gains this Thursday it will be a crushing blow to them,'' he said.

It is all part of playing down expectations. Labour strategists talk of a turnout of between 30%-40%. Mr Blair admitted it would be a remarkable feat for Labour to replicate its 1994 success.

Paddy Ashdown by contrast sounds remarkably bullish. The Liberal Democrats hope to make inroads in London, where a number of councils are hung. They hope to do well in Hackney and Islington, but their best hope is Southwark where Labour could lose control in part thanks to the high-profile of local Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes. A Lib Dem Tory target is Bromley in Kent.

But Mr Ashdown must contend with the political difficulty posed by his intimate relations with the Government. He is involved in a Cabinet committee on constitutional and other reform with Mr Blair which has allowed the Tories to portray Labour and then Lib Dems as two sides of the same coin. In the Commons yesterday he emphasised his position as a de facto coalition partner by using his intervention in the single currency debate to attack not the Prime Minister but the Tories.

The by-election trend, scarcely noticed since last May, has been against the Government and in favour of the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even Labour enthusiasts have ruled out making any gains in Tory heartlands such as Westminster and Wandsworth.

Mr Hague will be disappointed if he fails to make any inroads tomorrow. But he knows that these local elections have come too early in the life of this Parliament to give any reliable guidance on how his party might do nationally in four years' time. And he knows that even if voters give the Government a gentle slap on the wrist, all opinion polls show Tony Blair's standing remains at a record high.