Stewart mcIntosh waxes lyrical on the prospects for the housing market
This is the time of year when estate agents should be consulting their Shakespeare. Although the Bard of Stratford did not have estate agents in mind when he penned his eighteenth sonnet ''Shall I compare thee to a summer's day'' he was prescient enough to realise that the darling buds of May is a special time. But he also warned that even rosy periods must pass.
This is the high point of the property selling year. If you are going to sell your house, now is the time. Traditionally, buyers and sellers flow into the market in May and June as people resolve to do the business well before the summer holidays arrive.
In most parts of Scotland the market is stable right now. A good time to both buy and sell. While much media attention has focused on high price hot spots such as Glasgow's West End and parts of Edinburgh, most areas report steady sales at steady prices.
So what is really going on underneath the froth and media hype? According to the latest survey of house prices in Scotland by the Halifax Building Society, average prices virtually marked time during the first three months of this year with an average fall of just 0.1% north of the Border.
Geoff Mackrell, regional manager for the Halifax, points out that this means a steady market in most places. He said: ''These results, covering as they do the whole of Scotland, belie the increasing activity which has developed in certain parts of the Scottish market.
''In Edinburgh in particular, where there has been an acute shortage of properties on the market in certain price ranges, and in parts of Glasgow, the market has been very active and asking prices have been significantly exceeded in well publicised cases.''
Sales of new homes have reflected the increased activity in the hot spots as frustrated buyers opt for the comfort of a fixed price in the area in which they want to live.
But most of this activity is being driven by a lack of homes being put on the market. A vicious circle has developed where owners are reluctant to offer their home for sale because they can't see anything available that they would want to buy, thus ensuring that the prices of such houses as do come on to the market in the hot spots achieve top levels.
However, outside the high demand enclaves it is clear that people are not prepared to pay daft prices. And if a property has any flaws or problems associated with it, only a low price will ensure that it shifts. Buyers have learned the lessons of the last boom and crash - that modest properties should attract modest prices.
Meanwhile, demographic trends are doing their bit to keep the market stable. The post war baby boomers are now having to fund their children through college and university. The traditional mid-life move upmarket is being postponed by many middle class families. Meanwhile, young people are spending longer at home, or prefer to rent rather than buy during the first few years of their independence.
As a result, most people are buying only when they need to. Few are being panicked into hurling themselves, and their money, at any old property just in case further price rises put the home of their dreams out of reach.
Agents and builders are asking themselves whether the market will blossom over the next couple of months as spring and early summer bring a new crop of budding buyers into the market. It might. If more houses are brought on to the market then the current imbalance between supply and demand would be alleviated.
A wider range of choice would encourage more people to place their own homes on the market. A more benevolent circle could result, and some of the steam will be removed from the frothier parts of the market as prices gradually stabilise.
Anyone holding off for even higher prices should consider selling now. In most parts of the country dramatic price increases are simply not going to happen.
And holding out in a hot spot for even more cash means that the home you wish to buy will have gone up in price at the same time. Only the luckiest manage to sell high and buy low.
The current 7.25% interest rate is modest when compared with some of the peaks reached over the past 20 years. And with some economists predicting a reduction in the near future, borrowers can be reasonably confident that dramatic rises are very unlikely.
So while the market outlook is far from offering boom conditions in most parts of Scotland, the chances of a continuing rosy glow seem sound.
But Shakespeare warned us that this pleasant condition might not last for ever. Would-be buyers and sellers who read again the eighteenth sonnet will find an in-built reminder that nothing stands still.
Rough winds do shake the darling buds of May, And summer's lease hath all too short a date.
In short, buy now while the climate is pleasant.
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