Split on nicotine patch TOPIC OF THE WEEK SMOKING

For those in the firing line, ie tobacco manufacturers, the build-up to next Sunday appears no different to any other attack on their products. Recent punitive political measures in the international arena depict a market under threat. In this month's quarterly report, American giants Philip Morris admitted that, ''the tobacco industry both in the US and abroad has faced and continues to face a number of issues that may affect the business value, revenue . . . and may require significant changes in their practices and policies.''

Legislation introducing a European Union-wide ban on tobacco advertising and sponsorship is about to be endorsed. Within the next seven years tobacco advertising will be banished from all billboards and cinemas, newspapers and magazines. The ban extends to high-profile sponsorship of sporting and cultural events with the exception of Formula 1 motor racing who have until 2006 to find new backers. The only permissible advertising will be shops and kiosks where cigarettes are sold.

The squeeze is being felt on all fronts: unwanted advertising generated by legal cases both in the US and the UK with lung cancer victims taking on the major players like Gallagher and Imperial Tobacco. In the US, where the industry faces legislation and penalties of an estimated #360bn, the tobacco industry is up in arms at what it perceives as ''unconstitutional'' restrictions proposed by Congress. The Scott Report also delivered a damning blow proving the links between lung cancer and tobacco.

Then there are the troubled retailers of tobacco. Ian Tabor is the spokesperson

for The Tobacco Alliance (which is funded by The Tobacco Manufacturer's Association). According to Tabor's members, the Government's decision to increase the price of a packet of cigarettes by 19p has resulted in ''a huge slump with sales down by a third''. With a huge price differential between the UK and the rest of the EU, the situation is ripe for the mushrooming numbers of tobacco smugglers, says Tabor. ''We now have the vastly cheaper hand-rolled tobacco and cigarettes sourced predominantly from Belgium and sold to the underground sometimes for a quarter of the UK price.'' An underground where clubs, bars, ice cream vans, and even car boot sales are deployed as the selling grounds for what the Tobacco Alliance believes account for 5% of all UK cigarettes and 75% of hand-rolled tobacco. Arguing from a purely ''economic and not moral standpoint'', Tabor believes the negative repercussions

of smuggling are manifold. ''First, the Government is losing an estimated #2.3bn in evaded excise duties,'' he says. ''With tobacco driven underground the Government is losing control on the sale of tobacco to children especially. Basically, it is undermining its own objectives.''

The World No Tobacco Day may find increasing support from the Western world's health-conscious adults but that still leaves huge gaps elsewhere. Fresh markets where the tobacco industry can operate without being pilloried as Public Enemy Number One. Markets where tobacco is not a dirty word and they can advertise their goods freely. The developing countries and Eastern Europe slot in very high on this potential ''exploitation'' list.

Again WHO is pessimistic in its long-term outlook. It estimates that of the 1.1 billion smokers in the world, 800 million of these are in the developing countries. ''By the mid-2020s, the transfer of the tobacco epidemic from rich to poor countries will be well advanced with about only 15% of the globe's smokers living in rich countries.''

Sir John Crofton, a world-renowned health expert, has conducted major research into the subject. In a 1996 paper, Sir John was scathing in his criticism of the multinational tobacco giants.

''He feels female smokers are being singled out for special targeting ''because of the decrease in social taboo for women'' to smoke.

Another burgeoning market is that of young people. Wendy Ugolini, from lobbying group Ash in Scotland, points to this year's WHO theme for World No Tobacco Day. ''The whole focus is on growing up without tobacco,'' she explains. ''The tobacco manufacturers are very clever. They know that children do not simply choose to smoke. Advertising tactics like sponsoring raves, comedy festivals, and sporting events are hugely influential.'' She refers to the WHO report which says: ''Tobacco advertising is twice as influential as peer pressure in encouraging children to smoke. Children are often more likely to buy the most heavily advertised brand of cigarettes.''

ASH Chief Executive Maureen Moore wants to see a concerted effort from political groups and society to stem the growing number of young smokers. ''We already have guidelines as regards the under-age sale of cigarettes to young people but they are not being enforced properly,'' she says. In evidence she quotes a Scottish Office report that stated there were no prosecutions, convictions or fines of retailers for the sale of illegal sales of tobacco to under 16s from 1996 to March 1997. The answer, Moore believes, is a Ministerial Task Force for tobacco control. A political body that will not only provide the resources to research such issues as access to tobacco but come up with ''a coherent strategy for the cessation of tobacco''.

For Moore, society as a whole has got to take responsibility and cease the ''misinformation''.

This she defines as the negative message catwalk models who smoke and stay slim give out plus the sporting heroes covered head to toe in a cigarette brand. ''Our target is cigarette prevention and that has to be initiated at a political level,'' she concludes.

But this argument is defined

as ''nonsense''

by John Carlyle, spokesman for The Tobacco Manufacturer's Association. Dealing first with the criticisms regarding young smokers, he feels that the anti-smoking lobby are their own worst enemies. ''The main factor is not advertising but peer pressure,'' he counters. ''If you look at all the global research, advertising always come ninth or tenth in influential factors. ''The fatal flaw in the anti-smokers' campaign is ironically in making the pernicious weed an attractive pursuit. Smoking is all about the rebelliousness of youth so by making it a forbidden substance they only succeed in making it a 'cool' thing to do.'' As for the moral and ethical decisions surrounding the developing countries, Carlyle errs on the side of civil liberties. ''Morals don't come into it. It's up to the individual,'' he says. ''We market what is a legal substance under heavy advertising restrictions, carrying

all the health warnings and the same information that is available in the Western world. If the individual wants the product we supply it.'' Carlyle, a non-smoker himself, is adamant that smokers and the tobacco industry contribute massive amounts in taxation and are therefore subsidising healthcare costs.

What Carlyle would like to see is increased communication between the anti-tobacco lobby and tobacco industry. ''We should be working together on accommodating the needs of smokers rather than treating them as social pariahs because that just makes people fight back,'' he says. ''Together we could tackle the illegal sales to under-age smokers, the designated non-smoking public places. The key is compromise not abolitionist attitudes.

''World No Tobacco Day should be changed to World Tobacco Co-operation Day if we are going to make any changes at all,'' he concludes. An entirely optimistic proposition given the vehemence of the diametrically opposed camps and the millions of pounds at stake.

World No Tobacco Day is likely to be with us for a few decades yet.