Logic dictates that there is only one way for the Scottish Tories to travel - and that is up. The problem is that there is no rule of politics that insists the journey must be quick.

When they gather tonight in Glasgow for their annual conference the Tories can be expected to turn on the brave rhetoric about the worst being over and a new future beckoning soon in the Scottish Parliament. Some will no doubt employ wishful thinking and seek comfort in old political saws such as Harold Wilson's ''a week is a long time in politics'' or Joseph Chamberlain's ''in politics there is no use looking beyond the next fortnight''.

But deep down in their broken hearts Scottish Tories know they are staring at years in the wilderness. After being vaporised by the Scottish electorate 13 months ago they understand there is no imaginable reason why they should suddenly become electorally relevant again so soon.

Scotland and England appear to be going their different (I almost said separate) ways politically. In England the Tory Opposition is still shattered and not yet showing much sign of becoming a force. New Labour is, alarmingly, being given a free run. In Scotland, by contrast, the SNP is putting up such an unremitting show in Opposition that it is now scaring the pants off New Labour in a manner which was unimaginable even a few months ago. The Scots are turning in droves to the Nationalists to do the job the Tories are failing to do in England: that is to put the reins on New Labour. For this purpose the Tories in Scotland are deemed to be irrelevant, left to scrap with the Scottish Liberal Demo-crats for a share of perhaps 20% of the vote in what the polls suggest is shaping to become almost a two-party nation.

It took some electoral determination to do to the Tories what the Scottish voters did last year. Years of seething resentment in Scotland (and much of the rest of the UK, notably Wales) was channelled into a merciless rejection so humiliating that the thought of it still takes the breath away. Nothing like that has happened since the end of the Second World War when the voting public showed little respect for its rulers - only cold rejection and a wish to sweep away the order of things.

Are the Tories - once regarded as the most successful party in European politics - now facing the fate of the Liberals in the years between the wars when, suddenly, they all but disappeared as a political and electoral force? There is little cause to doubt that this is a strong possibility now that forces beyond the control of the Tories - such as looming proportional representation - are in bleak prospect. No Westminster MPs, no Euro-MPs, no councils to run - no future? As next year's first Scottish Parliament elections approach it is already clear that even if the Tories scrape a seat or two from the 73 constituencies - itself unlikely in the current mood - and even if they do reasonably well by winning regional seats through PR, their role will be that of bit players at Holyrood.

Labour is certain to reject any idea of a coalition with the Tories. The best the Tories could expect by way of relevance would be agreement with Labour on specific but fleeting issues. Shunning the ''anti-Scottish'' Tories is official SNP policy, and even the PR-daft Lib-Dems are unlikely to risk the electoral cost of joining forces with the Tories who are, therefore, the pariah party of today's Scottish politics and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. One very senior Tory dismissed my suggestion recently that the party's salvation lay in embracing PR despite its appeal for a fringe party in the new Scotland. His reasoning was simple enough: ''No-one will speak to us.''

If the Tories' long-term fate seems miserable in Scotland, what must it be like in the United Kingdom generally? Tony Blair has the power to shut the Tories out of office for an eternity. All he has to do is accept that the old first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system has had its day and that Britain cannot credibly continue to be alone in Europe in using it.

Lord Jenkins of Hillhead is now investigating PR for the government and it is a safe bet he will conclude that democracy in changing Britain requires a modern electoral system. With the Lib-Dems ready to grasp a move from FPTP to anything which smacks of PR, the potential exists for New Labour and the Lib-Dems, jointly if necessary, to keep the Tories out of office for as long as they wish.

If all this makes grim reading today for the 18% of Scotland's electors who voted Tory in last May for a nil return, then please don't shoot the messenger. Let me offer them some hope instead.

Given that the long journey up again must begin somewhere, what is wrong with starting at the bottom - with local government which in Scotland is in desperate need of fresh blood and reform? Donald Dewar is openly flirting with PR for council elections and after all his recent forthright comments about the need for radical improvement and an end to immovable one-party rule, he would be a brave man to block a move from FPTP.

The Tories might consider capitalising on local council reform by putting their efforts into grassroots campaigning in the way the Lib-Dems have done for years. Instead of antagonising Scotland's independent councillors, many of whom are Conservatives at heart, even if they don't all carry cards, the Tories should cosy up to them with a view to forming coalitions when reform takes place - presumably in the elections after next May's.

Meanwhile, the Tories can also look to the Euro-elections next May when there will be genuine PR (not the self-serving hybrid chosen by Mr Dewar for Holyrood) and a good chance of Scotland returning a Conservative Euro-MP.

This is not a strategy for the impatient but, then, the Tories have much time on their hands.