A TIME bomb of ill health and mortality could go off in 2030, warned a study published in the British Medical Journal yesterday.
The research - conducted among 6000 West of Scotland men over a 20-year period - has uncovered a strong link between childhood deprivation and adult mortality. Deaths from stomach cancer and strokes emerged as the major associated diseases.
Even more damning was the observation that a positive change in later adult circumstances - career and affluent lifestyle - may not guarantee good health. Findings, authors say, raise serious implications for long-term effects of rising child poverty in Britain.
Professor Davey Smith, from the Department of Social Medicine at Bristol University, who headed up the study, issued a message to future policymakers.
''Governmental policies regarding social circumstances and poverty could be seen as short-sighted when you consider the long-term detrimental effects of these policies on the nation's health in 30 or 40 years' time,'' he said.
Professor Smith says present trends indicate the number of children born below the poverty line is increasing. Compared to 10% in 1979, latest data from 1994 shows a dramatic increase to 33%.
This has particular relevance to Scotland where, for the first time since the 1960s, health inequalities between social classes are greater than England and Wales. ''The West of Scotland was an ideal place in which to conduct the research because we were looking for an explanation for its poor health record,'' said Professor Smith.
The study suggests children raised in poor circumstances are prone to pick up an organism called Helicobacter pylori. ''Such an infection may be an important cause of stomach cancer,'' the authors say.
The study goes on to suggest a common link between stomach cancer and strokes.
The socio-economic factors are also evident in those areas in the West of Scotland where a high number of women in childbirth and neonatal children used to die earlier this century. They now indicate a high rate of death from strokes.
Professor Smith concluded: ''Later affluence is not going to reverse the adverse socio-economic conditions of childhood.''
He said: ''We tend to believe that if you are born poor and become affluent then you actually stand a better chance of good health than if you are born and stay poor throughout your life.''
For respiratory disease, the authors highlight the importance of environmental factors throughout life.
The study tracked 5645 men in a variety of social classes from the early 70s up to the early 90s. All were aged 35-64 at the time of recruitment.
The lengthy period was an attempt to give a more accurate reading.
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