It's a dog in a manger

In locked rooms in London, Los Angeles, New York, and Tokyo high-powered meetings were being held as far back as February to try to prophesise this year's top toys for Christmas. Back the wrong choice and your career - even your company - could go bust. Back a winner - 2000's answer to the Rubik's Cube, Cabbage Patch Dolls, My Little Pony, Buzz Lightyear, or Furby - and your fortune could be made.

Spare a thought, for instance, for the manufacturers who placed their faith in Star Wars. The movie more or less bombed, leaving some big players with egg on their faces and unwanted stocks of Star Wars games and toys.

Some old favourites seem as though they'll never go away. Barbie, in some flashy new outfits, including Rock Star, Hollywood, Bride, Mermaid (brand new in the US and swimming soon to a toy shop near you), is back with a vengeance this year.

''Good toys go on forever,'' says Derek Barr at John Lewis's lavish toy department. ''Take Playmobil. Like Lego, it's bright, solidly made, and you can buy anything from a single character at a fiver to a fabulous Georgian doll's house at #119. Then there are the Fisher Price and Tomy ranges, Action Man, early learning laptops and computers, Baby Annabel dolls, and Buggies that look just like the real thing . . . ''

But what everyone wants to know already is: What's going to be this year's new big thing? The one the kids cannot live without, the one their parents will queue, clamour, and almost kill for in the last frantic days before Christmas? If you are a shopkeeper, you need to know now - and pray you don't get caught with your pants down in December.

My money's on the interactive robotic dog. It could be the cute little Poo-Chi, from Tiger Electronics, makers of Furby. It can walk, express emotion with its eyes, ''eat its bone'', and it costs #22.55 at John Lewis, a little more in some other toy outlets.

Toys R Us in the US are also wagging their corporate tails at Teksta, which is bigger, also walks and barks and relates to its owner. It's tipped too by Toymaster in Paisley and Dundee.

Cute metallic curs, then, that's where the hot money's going just now. But could some totally unexpected product take the trade by surprise any day now? Who knows? After all, there are still 80 shopping days until Christmas.

What about Dinosaurs, the Disney movie opening tomorrow? Won't it create some sought-after spin-offs? ''The trade is dinosaur-shy since it got its fingers burnt with Jurassic Park 2'' says Eric Green, buying director for L D Toys, which retail and distribute all over the country. You'll find a few ''prehistoric'' items to mark the BBC's Walking With Dinosaurs, and that new film, but no-one's getting excited about them, trust me.''

Green is placing his bets on the robot puppies. ''You could say the trade is going to the dogs,'' he quips. He's also quietly confident about Thunderbirds, which are having a remarkable revival - with a promise by Blue Peter to show kids how to make their

own Tracy Island (to buy the set cost #33).

Pokemon, he reckons, is old hat. Star Wars is a disaster - ''one firm lost $40m on it''. Harry Potter merchandise won't appear until next winter, after the movie comes out.

One prezzie that may go down like a lead balloon is Aberdeen or Dundee and significant areas of Glasgow, but will be a big hit

with thousands, is the Glasgow Rangers Monopoly game -

coming soon.

Derek Barr bows to advance of technology, yet gazes with some affection at beautifully made wooden dolls' houses, a superb Silver Cross doll's pram at a mere #225, and a stable of soft cuddly toys that don't do anything except look sweet.

But top toys interact. Number four best seller at Toys R Us in the US is Amazing Ally, and John Lewis is placing a lot of faith in her too. Technically brilliant, she frowns, blinks, smiles, pouts, chats . . . It's enough to send shivers down your spine. I think she's creepy and Barr secretly agrees with me, but she'll sell well, even at #59.

In fact, very few of today's products don't answer you back.

Press the right spot and they threaten, cajole, query, cry,

or cackle.

Thunderbirds's Virgil Tracy talks like the all-American hero he is. One dinosaur roars ''Who's there?'' when you touch his pad. Baby Annabel (#37) gurgles, snuffles, and sighs in her sleep.

There's one problem about dolls and stereotypical girls' toys in general. When the girls reach seven or eight, they stop playing with them. All of a sudden they want to be Britney Spears and they want feather boas, tiaras, and make-up kits. There's something very sad about that. And there's something's very sinister about a large doll's head at #19.75 - ''My Model'' from Zapf Creation - on which eight and nine-year-olds are supposed to learn how to apply make-up and do their hair. Yukk!

Some girls, of course, despise all that gooey stuff and will be joining their brothers in pleading for a Micro Scooter (prices range from about #50 to #100, but watch out for some dodgy models at the cheaper end of the market), electronic games, remote control cars (magnificent replicas can cost from #60 up to nearly #200), even Action Man (old news, but still going strong).

What else will be big this Christmas? Anything to do with WWF - such as a skateboard with Stone Cold Steve Austen's signature at #19.99 (from Beattie's four Scottish branches); Who Wants To Be A Millionaire playstation (#24.99); Bob The Builder for tiny tots; Furby Baby, still cosseted at #21.75. And if you must have a Star Wars souvenir, it's got to be Yoda, whose voice has taken months to perfect, at #35, complete with light saber (sic).

For larger offspring, computers again, especially laptops. Or the Leap Frog explorer - an interactive globe. Touch it and it will tell you land masses and distances and even ask you questions and play games. Fun geography if you can afford #99. Then there are science kits, craft kits, metal detectors, dressing up outfits. I'm assuming, of course, that your little darlings already have their own mobile phones, TVs and music centres. To think that, once-upon-a-time, we were thrilled by a jigsaw, a colouring book, and a tangerine!

Oh, and if you think all this is ridiculously early, well so do I, to tell you the truth. But that's the toy trade for you. It's a cut-throat business making the kiddies happy.