IT is tempting to fall into gloom at the news that the US naval base

at Edzell will close progressively over the next two years. The effect

on the surrounding area will undoubtedly be significant, especially as

the base is believed to contribute annually some #20m to local

households and businesses. Just as inevitably, some local figures are

determined to present the closure as a disaster. It is serious, but it

is not as desperate as that. Indeed the evidence from Dunoon and

district, which suffered the much larger withdrawal of the US base on

the Holy Loch, is that events of this sort can act as a catalyst,

propelling local initiatives to the forefront and subsequently drawing

in fresh employment and business from outside.

The Cowal Peninsula lost well over 800 jobs when the Holy Loch base

closed in 1992, and the event was followed by dire predictions of

economic and social collapse. Nothing of the sort happened. Local

ginger groups were formed to combat the loss of jobs and revenue and by

last year it was clear that initiatives in the area and from outside

were on the point of recouping all of the jobs lost when the Americans

left. At this moment the Cowal area is one of two sites in Scotland

firmly in line for a 2000-job semiconductor plant from abroad. The fact

that it is in contention points to the effectiveness of local

rehabilitation and the self-confidence and skills of the workforce.

There is no reason why the same should not happen around Edzell.

Government help will be needed, and already there is word of a task

force which will assess the future potential. North Angus has suffered a

blow, but it will not be fatal and may even lead to better things.