Yellow warnings, rising to amber warnings, rising again to red - Humza Yousaf must surely look at the increasing severity of the storms pummelling Scotland and think of his own premiership, battered relentlessly too by problems as unpredictable and untameable as Storm Babet.
All interested eyes were keenly trained on the SNP conference this week and, crucially, on the First Minister's speech. It was, given the difficulties he's faced so far, the first time Yousaf has had a clear platform in the media spotlight to outline exactly who he is, what he stands for and where he wants to take his party.
Yousaf has been firefighting on multiple fronts since taking office, in large part due to the difficult wider political climate and, not infrequently, as a result of wilful fire raising from his own side.
READ MORE: Why Scottish Government's council tax stance is not fair or progressive
Now he is also facing unbearable personal adversity and we have seen a statesman-like demeanour and moral clarity from him in the past week that hasn't been previously obvious.
There is an unfortunate tendency from some quarters to imagine politicians as somewhat unfeeling drones - the idea they are in it for the power or careerist motivations or some other nefarious spur.
Yousaf is a smart guy, charming and personable and a canny political operator but the relentless difficulties of the SNP and people's cynicism and anger towards the party have, perhaps, stopped people from being able to see those qualities.
Now, his personal involvement and the leadership he has shown in relation to the Israel and Hamas conflict has given voters enough pause to view him as a human being first, and be impressed.
And his conference speech was impressive. Funds for women escaping domestic abuse is a good policy, it will please the feminist charity sector that was supported so closely by Yousaf's predecessor and it speaks to his commitment to tackle poverty.
Opening with a call to the UK government to start a refugee resettlement programme for Palestinians with Scotland at its vanguard was both a deeply personal call and a smart political move. It emphasises again the clear dividing line the Scottish Government has created with the UK government on the matter of immigration and particularly asylum rights.
READ MORE: Humza Yousaf stands by his controversial council tax plans
It also gives a talking point - immigration policy - to raise with a Labour party criticised for being light on devolution discussion.
One of the less mentioned aspects of the SNP conference was the agreed route to independence. Not the fact of the agreement itself - whether you agree with it/disagree with it/understand what on earth the plan is - but that it was agreed in such a respectful, collegiate manner from MSPs and MPs of various ideological persuasions.
Finally a departure from the SNP's reputation as riven by splits and petty in-fighting, finally a sign that Yousaf is exerting discipline by mediation.
So, all good stuff. And then... and then... the council tax freeze. What an astonishing misstep and one that has since overshadowed every other policy position outlined on Tuesday.
Though Alex Salmond's Alba party has backed it so maybe that speaks to Yousaf's stated intention to unite the Yes movement.
In echoes of the Uxbridge by-election, where the Conservatives pivoted on their green commitments due to the assumed preferences of a small number of voters, so has the First Minister over-corrected his council tax proposals in the light of the ballot box choices of people in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
It is assumed that middle earners in the constituency voted Labour in part because of concerns about SNP plans to raise council tax by as much as 22% in the top bands.
Certainly, Labour were hammering their rivals on the issue of council tax in the run up to the election. Anas Sarwar was rightly critical of the plans but for the wrong reasons. He said it was wrong to raise council tax in one in four houses by an average of £740 a year during a cost of living crisis.
Yet councils must be adequately funded to provide services and that money must come, in part, from proportionate and sufficient taxation. There are plenty of households that could and should be paying more - but council tax bandings are not indicative of household wealth and are certainly not reflective of a fair distribution of wealth.
READ MORE: Behind the scenes at the Labour party conference - can it ever be fun?
For a tax levied on the basis of property prices, the tax isn't even indicative of property price. It's a dog's dinner.
With a system as skewed as the council tax system, any tinkering around the edges will please none of the people none of the time. The only way forward is complete reform or replacement, both of which would take years and be a significant, laborious piece of work.
It's no wonder the SNP have shied away from doing so, despite this being a key pledge in 2007. But the party hasn't shifted from the pledge - it keeps repeating it without ever doing anything about it.
This is from 2021: "We are committed to reforming the Council Tax to make it fairer. Cross party talks on a replacement for the council tax were underway, but had to be postponed due to the pandemic.
"We have funded local government to freeze Council Tax across Scotland for 2021/22."
Repeatedly taking fright and freezing council tax is no way forward. It was dispiriting to hear the holler of "yes!" in the conference hall and rapturous applause as the council tax freeze was announced. While Anas Sarwar has been steadily moving Scottish Labour to the economic centre, Yousaf has been guiding his party to the left.
A left-leaning position is not one that supports comfortably off people shirking their tax responsibilities.
READ MORE: On social media it's best when people say nothing at all
In a steady economy, paying tax is a privilege, not something people want to wriggle out of. Will there be rapturous applause as councils - such as North Lanarkshire Council earlier this month - face decisions about closing libraries and leisure facilities to balance their budgets.
Is social care a fair target? What about nursery provision?
Sarwar may have gone after the SNP with a tax hike attack line but Yousaf, in an attempt to outwit him, has over-corrected.
The council tax freeze, it emerged, was not signed off by cabinet, was not run past the Scottish Greens and was not raised with Cosla. Yousaf, instead of continuing a new wave of unity, has hacked off everyone around him, risking the fury of town halls in exchange for a gamble that this will sweeten voters at the impending general election ballot box.
No politician wants to ask the electorate for more money in the run up to an election. But the SNP needs to find a moral core from which it can persuade voters that it is good and right to pay a proportionate part in society.
Yousaf has shown he can find the moral high ground on Palestine's humanitarian crisis; he must find it too on the issue of council tax. Otherwise no sandbags are going to stem the rising tide of dissatisfaction.
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