Heading through summer and into autumn, in the grip of the UK’s economic malaise, it has been most heartening to see continued strong trading for package holiday companies and airlines.
Also a matter for cheer has been a raft of new route announcements from Scottish airports, as well as future commitments from airlines on existing services and at times an enhancement of these in terms of frequency, capacity or operating months.
It is, of course, important to bear in mind that airports in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK, and further afield, have been rebuilding following the devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.
However, in a Scottish context, the momentum has been encouraging.
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And the signs are that consumers in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK, amid the misery of the cost of living crisis and surging interest rates, are continuing to prioritise holidays.
We must, of course, remember that for many people in the UK, amid dismal failures from the Conservatives on economic policy in general and when it has come to the urgent need to support those most under pressure, holidays are not an option.
However, the updates from travel companies and airlines signal that consumers with disposable income are willing to forego other things amid the UK’s cost of living crisis to travel overseas.
And, particularly given the enormous hit to travel agents, holiday companies, airlines and airports amid the coronavirus pandemic, it is good to see this sizeable part of the economy doing so well against a most difficult backdrop.
It is important for employment and the economy as a whole that these players have the chance to continue to bounce back strongly.
And the rebuilding of air connectivity has rightly been highlighted by some as crucial to overall economic prosperity.
The longer the overseas travel sector remains strong, and the more buoyant it is, the greater the chance that such connectivity can be part of a virtuous circle in terms of stimulating broader economic growth, further boosting routes and services, and so on.
Last week, airline easyJet revealed it expected record fourth-quarter profits and announced a resumption of its dividend as well as an order with Airbus for a further 157 aircraft, comprising 56 A320neo and 101 A321neo planes. It has also agreed with Airbus an option to buy a further 100 aircraft.
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Johan Lundgren, the airline’s chief executive, also highlighted ambitions to expand the easyJet holidays business.
The airline projected a record headline pre-tax profit of between £650 million and £670m for the fourth quarter of its financial year to September 30.
It expects pre-tax profits for the 12 months to September 30 to have been between £440m and £460m.
Highlighting growth ambitions, Mr Lundgren said: “Our new medium-term targets provide the building blocks to deliver a PBT (profit before tax) greater than £1 billion. This will be driven by reducing winter losses, upgauging our fleet and growing easyJet holidays. As part of our commitment to shareholder returns, the board intends to reinstate dividends commencing with the FY23 results.”
Reflecting on recent trading and looking ahead, easyJet said: “Demand for easyJet’s primary airport network has remained strong, delivering a record financial performance for the group this summer. Moving into the 2024 financial year, booking momentum is continuing and we expect Q1 capacity to grow by [circa] 15%.”
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Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, said of easyJet’s update: “Despite a turbulent summer that saw easyJet cancel nearly 2,000 flights, it’s a reassuring update from the low-cost carrier…The record profits are bang in line with consensus and passenger numbers are up 8% after a huge and persistent rise in demand for flights post-pandemic.
“But it’s the medium-term targets that are particularly exciting. The budget airline now expects group profits to hit a billion [pounds] by 2026, which is a significant upgrade to current expectations.”
She added: “The other standout headline is an order for 157 new Airbus worth $20bn. Throw in a return to dividend payments at the full-year and the no-frills carrier looks to be in fine form.”
Package holiday giant and airline TUI meanwhile declared, when it published its trading update on September 19, that current booking trends underline “the strong consumer demand in the current macroeconomic environment”.
TUI chief executive Sebastian Ebel flagged the UK and Germany as strong markets.
He said last month: “We are seeing a strong close to the summer season and we are on course to achieve results in line with expectations. This is particularly evident in our main markets Germany, where bookings year-on-year are 10% higher, and UK, where bookings are in line with an already strong prior-year summer season and 4% ahead of pre-pandemic levels.
“Indeed, had it not been for the various events during the last few months which were outside of our control, not least the wildfires on Rhodes, we would have performed ahead of expectations.”
Mr Ebel declared that TUI is “well positioned as we head into the new financial year”.
He added: “The positive trading momentum is continuing, and I am very optimistic for the coming winter and summer seasons. For winter 2023/24, we are still at an early booking stage, but the increase of 15% in bookings compared to the previous year is a very encouraging signal.”
Package holiday company and airline Jet2 was also upbeat when it published a trading update on September 7, revealing its profits were on track to beat market expectations.
It also flagged strength in forward bookings.
Jet2 said in this update: “The months of July and August experienced strong late booking momentum with September…showing a similar trend.”
It added: “Pleasingly, the mix of higher margin package holiday customers represents 71.7% of total departing passengers at present and is 4.8ppts (percentage points) higher than summer 2022.
“Winter 2023/24 forward bookings are encouraging with average load factors 0.3ppts ahead of those of winter 2022/23 at the same point, against a 20.4% seat capacity increase to 4.47m (million) seats, with the package holiday mix currently up by over 5ppts on winter 2022/23.”
It added that “for both seasons, average pricing to date for both package holidays and flight-only products has remained robust”.
The UK macroeconomic headwinds show no sign of abating.
However, the overseas travel sector retains what has been a most impressive momentum since we started emerging from the utter grimness of the coronavirus pandemic.
Long may this strength continue, for the sake of the economy, employment, connectivity and of course the millions of people whose love of travel has only been intensified by the protracted period in which going abroad was difficult and at times impossible.
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