RESEARCH disclosed by Savills recently offered a surprise take on the fortunes of the hospitality sector in Scotland’s biggest city.
And the findings made the case that there are more reasons to be cheerful than one might expect.
The research, reported exclusively in The Herald, found that 23 new outlets launched in Glasgow in 2022, making it the busiest year for new openings in the city for five years.
At a time when the hospitality industry is coming under severe pressure on so many fronts, it was certainly encouraging (if not surprising) to see so many business people willing to look beyond the current economic challenges and show faith in the long-term prospects of the sector and indeed the city. It also illustrated that the spirit of innovation is alive and well in the industry, with many of the entrants bringing new and different ideas to the table.
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With 65 per cent of the property deals concluded involving local operators, Savills noted that the year had seen the arrival of new concepts such as Fat Lobster, Gost, Devil of Brooklyn, August House and Bao. The year also brought some national chains to Glasgow for the first time, including Fat Hippo and Mowgli, while beer firm Innis & Gunn added a second taproom in Glasgow – and fifth overall – on West Nile Street.
For John Menzies, retail director at Savills in Glasgow, the commitment shown by these operators not only signals their confidence that better economic times are on the horizon, but their conviction that Glasgow remains a city where people like to go out and have fun.
“Post-Covid, we have seen a resurgence of people wanting to go out and enjoy themselves, and despite the climate, spend money,” he said. “That intelligence is not lost on operators who are looking to where to go next.”
Mr Menzies added: “Inherently, it is a glass half-full market. It is an optimistic bunch of people that operate in this sector, and they absolutely see a way to get through the tricky spell we are in just now.”
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Of course, it would clearly be wrong to think everything in the garden is rosy. Savills did not provide figures on the number of outlets that closed over the period, but Mr Menzies did not shy away from the fact that there were businesses that did shut their doors for the final time in 2022. Industry figures expect there will be closures this year too and it is easy to see why.
Trading updates from major operators for the festive period in recent days have underlined just how tough the going currently is in the industry.
C&C Group, the Irish-based owner of Tennent’s Lager, issued a profit warning as it highlighted the effects of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and rail strikes in the build-up to Christmas, citing statistics from CGA Strategy that showed a high level of booking cancellations over the period. There were also fewer “walk-ins”, the figures showed.
The drinks company said: “We believe consumer spending pressure is a driver behind this trading performance and will continue to be so in the near-term.”
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C&C was not alone in reporting a disappointing Christmas.
Revolution Bars Group also pinpointed the cost-of-living crisis and rail strikes as it too warned profits would be lower than previously guided.
It has decided to close a number of its bars at certain times in January and February to save energy costs.
Although Revolution, which has 90 outlets around the UK, said it set a company record for pre-booked party revenue at Christmas chief executive Rob Pitcher said the “continued train strikes had a material impact on whether guests attended their office Christmas parties, how long they stayed and whether they met up with friends on a separate occasion.”
Mr Pitcher added: “Given the current economic environment the coming months are going to be challenging and uncertain, not only for us, but for many businesses. We are not immune to this.”
JD Wetherspoon reported yesterday that sales continued to lag pre-pandemic levels when it updated the city on trading for the 25 weeks ended January 22. Like-for-like sales were 13.1% higher than a year earlier, but 0.7% lower than the same period immediately before the pandemic.
Instead of dwelling on the cost of living, chairman Tim Martin focused his comments on the “vast tax disparity” between the pub trade and supermarkets, describing it as the “biggest threat to the hospitality industry”.
It should be noted that other major players appeared more satisfied with their fortunes at Christmas.
Martson’s said it had seen good sales momentum through Christmas and into the new year while Mitchells & Butlers, the pub giant that owns Glasgow’s Horseshoe Bar, and Premier Inn owner Whitbread delivered upbeat statements too.
However, you would be hard pushed to find any operator who does not hold concerns over the immediate outlook. And it is arguably the smaller, independent operators – widely credited with providing the real entrepreneurial lifeblood to the industry – who will feel they are most at risk. This will particularly be the case for those who have battled through the pandemic and now have little left in reserve, and who are worried they may not be able to withstand the current cost-of-doing-business crisis.
While the larger corporate players are big enough to hedge their energy costs, there are independents who will rightly be concerned about how they can continue to afford utility bills that are up to 10 times higher than they were a year ago, especially when the support from government is withdrawn.
And that is before the higher cost of every other overhead is taken into account, from wages and food and drink to business rates.
One highly experienced city centre operator told The Herald this week that it would now take an eye-watering sum of money to set up a new licensed business and have a fighting chance of survival, let alone build a prosperous enterprise.
Anyone who launches an entirely new venture in these circumstances deserves credit for their bravery, and for their conviction that their best days do indeed lie ahead.
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