THE business community is “unsure” of its importance in the eyes of the Scottish Government, from which it senses “moderated hostility”, the chief executive of Glasgow Chamber of Commerce has declared.
Stuart Patrick, in an interview with The Herald, meanwhile highlighted his view that instability in the UK Government had damaged the business community’s confidence in it, citing major ministerial changes and the scale of the “about-turn” in policy decisions.
Mr Patrick declared the Scottish Government’s sudden introduction of housing rent controls in the autumn was “possibly the most damaging policy decision that was made out of the blue”, adding that he had seen property sector figures “fulminating” over this move in a way he had never observed before.
Assessing the general economic situation, the Glasgow Chamber chief cited his sense of a “weariness” among businesses amid “one wave following another” of challenges.
Reflecting on the political backdrop, Mr Patrick said: “There is a combined sense of instability at a UK Government level and I am calling it ‘moderated hostility’ at a Scottish Government level.”
He flagged views in the business community that the Scottish Government is “not really on our side” and, regarding the Conservatives at Westminster, that the “ones down south” are too focused on their own political issues.
He also highlighted a perception among company chiefs of a “raised eyebrow” from the Scottish Government about the role of businesses and “whether we are contributing enough”.
Elaborating on the business community’s take on the political backdrop, Mr Patrick said: “I think with the UK Government, obviously the instability has damaged confidence in it…I mean, who are you dealing with because there is ministerial changes? Confidence cannot be anything other than damaged by having such an about-turn on policy decisions between the Liz Truss government and the arrival of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. The hope is that will settle down, for so long as that Government remains in office.”
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He added: “I think the challenge with the Scottish Government is more complex. It is partly down to the understanding of how you create a relationship. It isn’t just about warm words and pleasant meetings and listening sessions. It is about what comes out at the end, and what policies are being pursued.”
Mr Patrick underlined the strength of reaction in the property sector to the introduction of rent controls, with the Scottish Government having implemented a temporary freeze by setting the cap on increases for in-tenancy rents at 0% until at least next March.
He said: “I have seen some very reasonable people in the property sector fulminating at what happened in a way I have never seen before.”
Mr Patrick added: “Possibly the most damaging policy decision that was made out of the blue, with no consultation, was the rent controls.
“One entire industry, from social housing to…[property] development, took the view that the Scottish Government is no longer interested in developing property in Scotland. How necessary was that [policy decision]? What was the evidence that there was going to be a substantial increase in rents and could that have been managed in an alternative way?”
He also flagged the Scottish Government’s proposals to restrict alcohol advertising and promotion and its planned deposit return scheme (DRS) for bottles and cans.
Mr Patrick said: “At the moment, the drinks industry [is] not happy…the retail industry [is] not happy about [the] DRS, and the property sector [is] completely shocked about rent controls, and so on.”
He voiced his belief that positive moves by the Scottish Government – citing as an example the appointment of former executive of flight search engine pioneer Skyscanner Mark Logan as chief entrepreneur – were “quite often cancelled out by an initiative that damages one or other sector”.
Mr Patrick said: “It is the giving with one hand and taking away with the other that leaves the business community unsure about the long-term direction of the Scottish Government’s view of the importance of the business community.”
He talked about the importance of “good relationships” and “good processes” in the context of interactions between the business community and the Scottish Government.
Asked about the current economic situation and the outlook, Mr Patrick replied: “What does one say in the current circumstances? Every time I open my email, there is yet another forecast or another ONS (Office for National Statistics) stat coming out that tells us we are either in or heading into an extremely uncomfortable recession. You start from the premise that what we are worrying about today is probably not what we are going to be worrying about in a year’s time.”
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He added: “I took a tour of international markets over the summer. I came back and noticed a dramatic change in opinion among our business membership, from before going away in June and coming back to talk to them in August. The topic had changed quite radically. In June, it was all about lack of skills – you couldn’t get skills in just about any discipline. From engineering to hospitality to shipbuilding, you couldn’t walk round the corner without [hearing] a story about how difficult it was to fill positions."
He observed that, “two months later”, the discourse had turned mainly to the “cost of doing business”.
Mr Patrick said: “Two months later we are into a recession and expectations of falling demand in sectors like hospitality, probably less so in export-related businesses.”
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Noting that businesses had been hit by “one wave followed by another wave” of challenges, he added: “You are constantly sensing a moving conveyor belt of discontent – which issue is coming along next.”
Highlighting his impressions from a “tour of all the senior members” of Glasgow Chamber in the “last couple of months”, Mr Patrick observed: “Usually what you get is, ‘Isn’t everything going to hell in a handcart but we are okay.’. You do still get that – a sense of, ‘We have a strategy, we have a business plan.’. I got a sense more of a weariness now that I hadn’t [previously]…All the way through Covid – [there was a sense] there is a big issue to be tackled but an energy about tackling it. I get this sense of weariness at the moment.”
Reflecting on the coronavirus pandemic, he highlighted the situation in China, which has until recently pursued a zero-Covid strategy, and the effect on global supply chains.
Mr Patrick said: “Two years in, you are thinking it is now coming to its close. I might have raised a question with the Scottish Government three months ago about the coming winter and the likelihood of any further restrictions coming into play in a pretty firm rejection of any notion that [was] going to happen. Yet China is carrying on, and it is still having an effect on supply chains in one way or another.”
He also flagged the economic fall-out from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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