Given questions about its impact on the national debt, inflation and the strength or otherwise of the pound sterling, it's fair to say the welcome for new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s so-called mini-Budget has been less than universal.
Whilst debate and scrutiny over the Government’s plans for fiscal rectitude are set to continue, we can surely all agree however with the Chancellor’s diagnosis that the UK economy desperately needs to grow. By the Chancellor’s own frank admission, gross domestic product has stagnated in recent years. Scotland’s economy has shown even weaker growth.
This lack of economic expansion is the root cause of many of the challenges we are now facing across society. With flaccid revenue growth, businesses struggle to increase wages, which in turn holds back consumption spending. Without higher revenues it’s harder to spend on the innovation and research and development necessary for new products or services or more productive working. Of course, some businesses do this, and do it well, but across the economy there has been persistently weak business investment.
This lack of growth affects the public sector as well. Higher growth provides increased tax revenues, which in turn allows greater state spending on infrastructure, education, and social care.
So the case for focusing on growth is obvious – yet it’s something which neither Westminster nor Holyrood have been terribly good at delivering in recent years. More frustratingly the levers for growing the economy are not especially complicated.
Anyone who has tried to invest in their business knows the required red tape would embarrass a Byzantine bureaucrat. Everything from planning permission to building warrants and other licences are subject to endless paperwork or delay. Genuinely changing the planning system to facilitate commercial and infrastructure investment would make enormous difference.
It means having a migration policy and skills agenda based around economic need while also ensuring the flow of goods and services is as friction-free as possible and infrastructure is first class. Finally, looking at the tax system to ensure it’s set at a rate to encourage people and firms to work and not avoid tax, whilst generating the necessary revenues.
On the latter the new Chancellor took several useful steps. Tax-free shopping for overseas visitors is being restored. This should generate much-needed revenues and cheer in parts of retail and tourism which have been clobbered by the pandemic.
Scottish retailers will welcome the mammoth intervention to shield consumers and businesses from the enormous energy price spikes; without action there is little doubt the economy was facing even more strife. Similarly, the reversal of the hike to national insurance contributions will shore up consumer demand and – with retail being the largest private sector employer – lower firms’ own costs.
However, some of the Treasury’s announcements won’t automatically apply to Scots. With the UK Government accelerating its planned reduction in the headline rate of income tax, bringing it forward to next April, Scottish Ministers should ensure workers on modest earnings here in Scotland – such as those on the basic and intermediate rates – benefit similarly. This would boost household incomes and encourage discretionary spending.
Further interventions may well be needed as the country faces into a challenging winter. Like growing a tree, the best time to make changes to the tax system, planning regime, immigration and skills model, or regulatory burden was years ago. The second best time is now.
At the end of this month the Scottish Government will unveil its postponed Emergency Budget Review. Businesses are seeking clarity on personal and business taxation, relief from the costs crunch facing firms, and the outcome of the review of the devolved regulatory burden. The economic landscape has shifted markedly these past couple of years and pausing or culling some regulatory burdens currently being implemented or considered would help retailers as they strive to keep down prices for consumers. Whether Scottish Ministers set their own growth target remains to be seen, but an acknowledgement of the need to lift the growth rate is undoubtedly required.
David Lonsdale is director of the Scottish Retail Consortium.
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