THERE is a danger that people might become inured to the increasingly dire projections for energy prices, overall inflation and interest rates in the UK.
Of course, it is crucial this does not happen, given the grave implications of soaring electricity and gas costs and broader inflation for tens of millions of households and the huge challenges posed by much higher borrowing costs for those with significant debt.
However, you get the impression that the ever-worsening numbers in the UK’s dire cost-of-living crisis are washing over significant numbers of people.
For many others, households and businesses alike, the reality of the situation is causing huge worry.
In contrast, senior Tory figures, including leadership contenders Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, seem alarmingly unperturbed.
READ MORE: High time Tories woke up to UK inflation crisis misery: Ian McConnell
It does not appear that this is because they have become inured to the daunting numbers.
Rather, it seems that the ruling Conservatives, in varying proportions, do not understand the scale of the problem and are not really that bothered about the effect on people.
Whatever is going through their minds, one thing is crystal clear: the UK Government has so far failed spectacularly to provide adequate help to mitigate a crisis partly of its own making and there is no sign this is about to change.
If ever there was a need for a Government made up of people, whatever their political persuasions, who could at least in broad terms relate to the financial challenges facing ordinary households, it would be now.
However, the current Cabinet, including Ms Truss, and erstwhile chancellor Mr Sunak look spectacularly out of touch.
Indeed, it is difficult to escape the notion that the ruling Conservatives are more than happy to sit on the sidelines and observe the unfolding catastrophe, rather than become involved in sorting it out.
The bluster of the Conservative leadership contest is surely an increasing irrelevance as the UK’s cost-of-living crisis becomes ever more urgent.
Even taking into account the extremely weak track record of this Conservative Government, which has been full of big talk while making one policy error after another, the stunning failure to address the country’s cost-of-living catastrophe seems remarkable.
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This week, we have had a comment from the Government that energy use is a matter for individuals, as if heating homes through winter is something that is a preference rather than a necessity.
It is difficult to fathom why, given the frightening projections for energy prices and inflation, no one in this Tory Government appears to be losing any sleep over the crisis.
Clearly, many members of the Government are out of touch with the financial realities facing ordinary households but you would think they might take even a passing interest given the awful situation with which millions of people are confronted.
If this were still not enough of a reason for some of the Conservatives in government to become involved, you would have thought they would be bothered about the party’s popularity in the polls. That said, any such concerns about popularity would probably be reduced by the fact they have a big majority and it could be more than two years until the next general election.
Whatever lies behind the Tories’ astounding reluctance to help, there is no doubting the scale of the woe facing households.
Annual UK consumer prices index inflation had by July surged to 10.1 per cent – more than five times the 2% target set for the Bank of England by the Treasury.
Banking group Citi this week projected annual CPI inflation could rise to 18.6% by January.
The Bank of England forecast earlier this month that annual inflation on this measure would rise to more than 13% in the fourth quarter and “remain at very elevated levels throughout much of 2023”.
And the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street forecasts that UK unemployment on the International Labour Organisation measure will rise to around 6.25% by mid-2025. The rate is currently 3.8%, and the Bank is forecasting the increase will occur from mid-2023.
So, as households find themselves in the teeth of a dire inflation crisis, the woe of many individuals and the economy as a whole will be compounded by a very sharp rise in unemployment.
READ MORE: Energy price crisis arithmetic worsens at alarming rate but Tories refuse to act: Ian McConnell
The Bank of England expects the UK economy to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year.
As it announced a half-point rise in UK base rates to 1.75% earlier this month, and published its latest projections, the Bank declared: “We know the cost-of-living squeeze is difficult for many people.”
This seems like something of an understatement. However, at least it shows an awareness that appears to be lacking in the UK Government, assuming it is not just that senior Tory figures do not care.
UK base rates have already risen faster and higher than many would have projected late last year when the inflation crisis was taking hold. That is no huge surprise, with the inflation figures having become ever more dire, consistently coming in even worse than expected.
However, it is a very difficult reality for households with substantial borrowings.
Financial markets have this week been pricing in base rates of 4% by early next year. This is a long way above the record low of 0.1% from which they were raised late last year.
It is unusual, in normal cycles, to see interest rates rise sharply as recession looms for the country.
However, that is exactly what is happening in the UK right now and it is a worrying situation, albeit apparently not for Cabinet members and Mr Sunak if the mood music is anything to go by.
All the while, amid the UK’s woeful lack of energy security for which much of the blame must surely be laid at the door of the Tories, the outlook for electricity and gas prices becomes ever more perplexing.
Regulator Ofgem in February announced a 54% hike in the energy price cap for a typical dual fuel customer to £1,971 a year, and this took effect on April 1.
The cap which will apply from October 1, and is due to be announced today, is predicted to be close to £3,600.
And energy consultancy Auxilione has in recent days projected that Ofgem could set the energy price cap at the equivalent of more than £6,500 per year for a typical dual fuel customer for the three months starting from April next year.
And we should keep in mind the grim situation facing many businesses on the energy price front.
The projections for energy prices, overall inflation and interest rates have just kept going higher and higher.
However, senior Tories, including both leadership contenders, appear staggeringly detached from the reality of what this means, as a grim winter looms.
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