As a reader of these pages, you of course saw it coming. So did the economists. So did every small business owner who’s been presented with a ridiculously inflated energy bill in the last few months.
Headline inflation is now into double figures.
Indeed, since May, I have repeatedly warned in this very column about what our members have been telling us about input prices and margins. Costs have been skyrocketing for almost everyone and, while some increases could be absorbed, others could not. That meant a choice between higher output prices, or margins being squeezed out of existence. Either way, it pumped further inflationary pressure into the system.
And now, at the end of August, with the kids back at school, the heatwave but a memory and Hallowe’en masks replacing charcoal briquettes in the promotional aisles, here we still are.
Still poring over even worse inflation figures. Still wondering where it’s going to end. Still urging government to take action before it’s too late.
What I think is of most concern is the apparent lack of urgency in dealing with a situation that is arguably a threat to the economy on a scale akin to Covid.
As we said to government when businesses were on a knife-edge at the height of the Covid crisis: speed is of the essence. Thankfully, that message was heeded and, as we know, an unprecedented level of support was delivered in record time.
It didn’t save everyone – we lost nearly 20,000 Scottish businesses in the first year of the pandemic – but it was a lifeline for a great many who would otherwise have gone to the wall. And we all acknowledged at the time that the pace of the intervention was a decisive factor.
This makes the current delay all the more baffling. We know the longer we go without action the harder it will be to bring things round. And the fact is that, for some businesses, it’s already too late.
Now, one should never underestimate the determination and tenacity of small businesses which have been doing battle against all sorts of challenges for what feels like forever. They’ll do everything in their power to keep trading, keep their staff in work and keep serving their customers and communities.
For many of our members, their business represents their life’s work, so they’re not going to give it up without a fight.
But they’re also realists. There comes a point where things simply cease to be viable. Our latest figures suggest about one in six businesses in Scotland are set to shrink, be sold or close over the next 12 months. So thoughts about business exit are clearly in owners’ minds.
So, when the clock is ticking and we have clear, recent precedent showing the value of prompt intervention, I don’t know why ministers won’t act.
They can’t be waiting for Friday’s announcement on the consumer energy price cap, as that (unfairly) doesn’t apply to business customers and so is irrelevant. Yes, there is an ongoing leadership contest to replace the current prime minister, but nothing is actually stopping him – or anyone else with authority – intervening now.
It’s all the more frustrating as there are sensible proposals on the table that could be implemented at a stroke.
As we have been saying for months, we can give firms breathing space by reversing the latest hike in national insurance. We could cut value-added tax – especially on non-domestic energy – and fuel duty. We could give small business customers the same protections enjoyed by consumers, which, although imperfect, at least provide some certainty.
Equally, unused Covid support grants – regardless of the sphere of government in which they currently sit – should be gathered back in and repurposed to help firms deal with cost spikes.
And, right across government, one simple cost-free move would be to hold off introducing any new, additional rules, costs or regulatory burdens on businesses.
The direction of travel has been painfully obvious to even the most casual observer for months. There are levers we can pull to help us change course, but we need to act now. We can all see where we’re heading if we don’t.
Colin Borland is director of devolved nations for the Federation of Small Businesses
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