IT seems these days the doomsayers are keener than ever to talk down the Scottish economy at every opportunity.
This rather pathetic situation seems to have been fuelled by the independence debate, with the more politically engaged and impassioned elements of the unionist camp far too often seemingly feeling the need to highlight the negatives and ignore or dispute the positives when it comes to Scotland’s economy. Of course, there are many moderates on both sides of the constitutional debate who take more of an objective view but the squeaky-wheel factor means it is those who seem annoyed when Scotland enjoys success and appear to delight in failure who tend to hog people’s attention.
These are clearly very difficult times.
And Scotland has many economic challenges.
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However, looking at the situation objectively and putting the politics to one side, it is crucial that people recognise the things within the Scottish Government’s power when it comes to the economy, and the matters beyond its control.
Looking at the current troubles, the cost-of-living crisis has been caused in large part by global factors but it has also been exacerbated very significantly by Brexit. Leaving the European Union was opposed by the Scottish electorate but the Johnson administration implemented a hard Brexit.
The economy in Scotland and throughout the UK has also been weighed down since 2010 by the Tories’ savage austerity programme.
And a further major drag will come from the UK Government’s recent tax grabs.
These are the big factors affecting the macroeconomic situation in Scotland and the UK as a whole, and for that matter determining levels of household and child poverty much more than anything in Holyrood’s power.
Sometimes the finger is pointed at the Scottish Government in relation to problems made elsewhere, or otherwise outwith its control.
One matter over which the Scottish Government does clearly have significant influence is foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country. Yes, global macroeconomic factors and the health or otherwise of particular sectors will play a part in FDI success or a lack thereof but Scotland has its very own, taxpayer-backed inward investment and trade agency in Scottish Development International. And this organisation and its performance are very much under the control of the Scottish Government.
So what did a key survey published this week by accountancy firm EY tell us about how Scotland is doing on the FDI front, relative to other parts of the UK and to countries elsewhere in Europe?
Unfortunately for the doomsayers, but happily for those who would wish for a healthy Scottish economy and the boost that provides to living standards, the survey signalled the nation is doing very well indeed on the inward investment front.
Crucially, it showed Scotland outpaced UK-wide progress significantly.
EY declared Scotland had made “great strides” as a destination for FDI in 2021, as its survey revealed the nation’s attractiveness rating from potential future investors had hit a record.
And EY Scotland managing partner Ally Scott declared: “Our findings suggest the outlook for Scotland’s FDI is exceptionally bright.”
The survey showed that, by number of projects, Scotland remains the second-top destination in the UK for FDI, behind only London.
Scotland achieved a 14 per cent rise in the number of inward investment projects secured in 2021, to 122, really putting a 1.8% increase for the UK as a whole in the shade. Countries across Europe saw an overall 5.4% rise in the number of FDI projects attracted.
The increase in inward investment projects won by Scotland last year was the fourth consecutive annual rise.
Scotland’s share of all UK FDI projects rose last year to its highest in the past decade. The nation secured 12.3% of UK FDI projects in 2021, up from 11% in 2020.
The survey revealed 15.8% of potential future investors had rated Scotland as the most attractive location in the UK for FDI. This is a record attractiveness reading for the nation, with only London scoring better on this front. Pre-pandemic in 2019, the proportion of potential future investors rating Scotland as the top UK FDI location was 7%, so the nation’s attractiveness reading has more than doubled over that short space of time.
London, which secured 394 FDI projects in 2021, was rated the most attractive destination in the UK for such activity by 27% of potential future investors.
Projected job numbers from FDI projects secured by Scotland last year totalled in excess of 10,000. This is more than double the corresponding figure of 4,500 for 2020.
EY declared Scotland’s “strength in high-value, high-growth industries like digital and utilities/cleantech, and an increase in manufacturing production FDI, bodes well for the future”.
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Mr Scott said: “The past year has seen Scotland continue to make great strides as a destination for FDI, meaning it can look to the future with even greater confidence. Scotland’s record levels of attractiveness underline that our second-placed UK ranking for FDI flow is matched and underpinned by investors’ rising perceptions.”
He pointed out that “keeping that momentum will require ongoing commitment and hard work in the face of historically high inflation, the rising cost of living, and wider geopolitical risks”.
EY chief economist Peter Arnold said: “This year’s report reveals yet more positive developments – not least the fourth consecutive annual rise in Scotland’s FDI projects and record location attractiveness levels…When we see what investors are looking for, Scotland gets many things right. The job of maintaining that, especially with economic and geopolitical headwinds, is not to be underestimated but for now there are many encouraging trends that suggest Scotland will continue to be an attractive location for overseas investment.”
Obviously, Scotland is not immune to chill global economic winds and will have to deal with the continuing very damaging effects of the UK Government’s Brexit odyssey.
However, looking at Scotland’s FDI figures for 2021, it was difficult to see any weaknesses for the doomsayers to poke at.
The nature of the projects won, and the sectors they are in, looks very encouraging, with Scotland remaining particularly attractive to US and European investors.
In terms of the top sources of FDI projects won by Scotland last year, by sector, digital technology delivered 33, with 18 from utility supply, and 14 each from business and professional services, and machinery and equipment.
The number of digital FDI projects won by Scotland rose by 73.4% last year, in contrast to a 7% decline in Europe and 7% growth in the UK overall, EY noted. The accountancy firm also pointed out Scotland is now firmly established as the UK’s number-two location for digital projects, behind London but ahead of south-east England.
Scotland ranked joint second with the south-east of England for research and development (R&D) FDI projects last year, behind only London, with 17 such investments, in spite of a slight dip in the number from 2020.
By country, the US last year remained the single biggest originator of FDI projects into Scotland. It accounted for 29.5% of such projects, 36 in all. Spain was the second-biggest source, accounting for 9.8% of FDI projects secured by Scotland in 2021. And 6.6% of the inward investment projects won by Scotland last year came from Germany.
Mr Scott noted: “Other regions and countries look to Scotland’s enviable business network, supported by regional economic advisory bodies.”
It is indeed a good set-up that Scotland has on this front, with a dedicated trade and inward investment organisation backed by economic development agencies. The bones of this pre-date devolution and FDI efforts have generally worked well over decades. However, it seems important to recognise that, in these challenging times and in spite of all the mud thrown at the Scottish Government on the economy and related matters by political opponents, the nation is performing very well indeed right now on the FDI front.
And the importance of such investment should not be underestimated.
FDI often brings with it very high value jobs. Some projects are R&D-led, and can involve collaborations with Scottish universities.
JPMorgan Chase & Co’s software development centre in Glasgow’s international financial services district is a fine example of the large-scale creation of high-quality, well-paid jobs that can come with FDI, and has provided an important boost to the city’s economy.
Healthy FDI levels also signal that Scotland is getting much right in terms of its skills base. And you would expect the nation to punch above its weight even more relative to other parts of the UK in years and decades ahead on this front if the Scottish Government’s current commitment to free university tuition for people in Scotland remains. Access to higher education should not be based on ability to pay or propensity to take on debt, with a huge tuition fees burden for students surely likely ultimately to diminish greatly the talent pool by discouraging study.
So university tuition fees policy is another area in which the Scottish Government is clearly getting things right, and can continue to make a big positive difference if it sticks with its commitment to fund course costs for people in Scotland.
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