IT would be difficult to overstate the scale of the downside surprise on the economy provided by this week’s flash purchasing managers’ index report.

That is not to suggest the UK economy has been in good form: anyone who follows events objectively knows it has been hammered by Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, not to mention the protracted Tory austerity programme which began in 2010. The economy is not in good shape, as strong global headwinds and calamitous policy errors by the Conservatives continue to take their toll.

The inflation crisis, driven in large part by global forces but most certainly exacerbated by Brexit, has for some time now looked like it has potential to tip the UK economy back into recession.

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However, the speed with which the recession alarm bells have started ringing loudly has wrongfooted many experts.

The flash UK PMI composite output index for May, published on Tuesday by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply and S&P Global, came in at a 15-month low of 51.8, not far above the level of 50 deemed to separate expansion from contraction. The reading was lower than all forecasts in a poll by Reuters, which had signalled an expectation among economists that the index would come in at 57. The April composite output index reading was 58.2.

CIPS and S&P Global noted the 6.4-point fall in the index was “the fourth-largest on record and exceeded anything seen prior to the pandemic”.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warned: “The latest data indicate a heightened risk of the economy falling into recession as the Bank of England fights to control inflation.”

He added: “The survey data…point to the economy almost grinding to a halt as inflationary pressure rises to unprecedented levels. The tailwind from the reopening of the economy has faded, having been overcome by headwinds of soaring prices, supply delays, labour shortages and increasingly gloomy prospects. Companies cite increasingly cautious moods among households and business customers, linked to the cost-of-living crisis, Brexit, rising interest rates, China’s lockdowns and the war in Ukraine.”

Any members of the Leave camp who think the impact of the folly of leaving the European Union has somehow faded would do well to note that Brexit figures prominently in the factors flagged by Mr Williamson, and by many other experts when it comes to assessing economic challenges.

Summing up the PMI survey findings, Mr Williamson flagged a “severe slowing in the rate of economic growth in May, with forward-looking indicators hinting that worse is to come”.

Duncan Brock, group director at CIPS, warned: “Even the relative buoyancy in orders for travel and hospitality was not enough to rescue service providers from the sinking feeling that recession is knocking on the door.”

It is a dismal situation.

There has undoubtedly been huge enthusiasm for travel, particularly overseas trips, as the unwinding of coronavirus-related restrictions has made going abroad relatively straightforward again.

It will have been a huge relief to many to have been able to widen their horizons again. And there will have been the added bonus for some of taking a break from Boris Johnson’s insular Brexit Britain.

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This huge, pent-up appetite among people in the UK for overseas travel has enabled airports, which are huge employers, to return to some sort of normality, with car parks which were long empty now packed again and terminals bustling. Travel agents and overseas holiday companies based in the UK, or with major operations here, will also have received a desperately needed boost, as will the likes of ground-handling businesses at airports.

The revival of overseas travel, as well as providing an important economic boost and being hugely important to the enormous number of people working in the sector, has been one of the main signs of hope on the way out of this dreadful pandemic.

Of course, domestic tourism operators in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK will also be hoping that their fortunes will receive a major boost this summer from a return of international visitors.

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Much of the UK hospitality sector too now looks, on the face of it, to be back pretty much to normal with the easing of restrictions.

Again, it has benefited from pent-up demand as many people look to go out to socialise again.

However, it is important to recognise the scale of the financial hit endured by many businesses operating in or dependent on the international travel sector and in hospitality.

Many had to take on large amounts of debt to deal with protracted shutdowns and restrictions. Sadly, while this had to be piled on swiftly, it will in many cases take a long time to pay back.

What these businesses need is for the tailwinds that came with the reopening of the economy to continue to lift their trading.

The problem, however, is that both international travel and hospitality are dependent on discretionary spending.

And, as the amount of money households have to spend is squeezed severely by the surge in the cost of necessities such as electricity and gas, petrol, and food, and the rise in benchmark UK interest rates, travel and hospitality businesses may well be wary.

Thankfully, unemployment is low by historical standards.

That said, you do wonder about the degree of under-employment given how grim things have been amid the coronavirus crisis for many and generally miserable economic conditions ever since the global financial crisis much more than a decade ago now.

And the Bank of England is forecasting a fairly sharp rise in UK unemployment.

The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street said earlier this month that, although the unemployment rate was “likely to fall slightly further in the near term, it is expected to rise to 5.5% in three years’ time given the sharp slowdown in demand growth”.

The unemployment rate on this International Labour Organisation measure was 3.7% in the January to March period.

The Office for National Statistics noted this month that, for the first time since records began, there are fewer unemployed people than job vacancies.

Of course, this situation is not as good as it might sound. Behind this statistical first are enormous labour and skills shortages in the UK, hugely exacerbated by Brexit, which will over years and decades be a major drag on growth and living standards.

In the meantime, as we wait to see whether or not the UK will fall back into recession, much will depend on the strength of two opposing forces.

In terms of tailwinds, many people who stayed in their jobs through the pandemic will have what has been referred to as “excess savings”, and holidays and going out are likely to be high on their list of priorities after a fairly dismal two years.

However, we also have fierce headwinds in the form of massive and alarming inflationary pressures, which the Johnson administration has seemed unable to ease for ordinary households to any great extent. Even though some long-overdue assistance came yesterday with material sums announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak to help with soaring energy costs, these will fall far short of covering the total effect of the increases in electricity and gas bills already implemented and on their way.

So, while UK growth might have ground to a near-halt much more quickly than many would have expected, we should not be at all surprised by the possibility of recession, especially given that there looks to be even worse to come in terms of pressure on household finances.

And the UK Government continues to look sadly incapable as the spectre of recession hangs over households which have had to endure major hardship for so many years now. Much of this has arisen from international forces, but a lot has come from a catalogue of poor policy decisions by the Conservatives since 2010.